Opening Day Roster – in-depth and highly erotic analysis (plus the return of Geki!)
By
Geki
Posted at 2:48 am
By my calculations, this is what we're looking at right now.
C Valentin
C Ross
1B Hatteberg
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Gonzalez
SS/3B Castro
LF Dunn
CF Griffey
OF Denorfia
OF Freel
I think most are in agreement that as we stand right now, all of those players are locks for the opening day roster. Assuming we go with the typical 13 hitter/12 pitcher roster, that leaves us with two spots to fill offensively. Possible suitors for those two spots within the organization:
IF Olmedo
IF Harris
OF Crosby
OF Hopper
Perhaps some of you may see it differently, but with what we already have on the bench, none of those options look very appetizing. I saw it mentioned elsewhere on the site, but I really do think pursuit of Craig Wilson is almost something that is necessary. Hatteberg needs a platoon mate and the bench needs some power, and having a guy with versatility is also nice. Add Wilson and any of the above four players (probably Olmedo or Harris), throw in competent managing (wishful thinking, probably), and I think we'd have a fairly strong lineup that looked something like this.
vs. RHP
RF Freel/Denorfia (I'd like to see Freel playing about 2/3s of the games in RF)
1B Hatteberg
CF Griffey
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
C Valentin (Catcher should be a strict platoon)
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez
vs. LHP
RF Freel/Denorfia
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
CF Griffey
1B Wilson
C Ross
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez
Honestly, if Dunn and Griffey hit well next year (we'll say Dunn at .900 OPS, and something like .930 vs. RHP and .850 against LHP and Griffey at .850 OPS with .900 vs. RHP and .770 vs. LHP, that would have the ability to be a top-five offense. The Javy/Ross platoon and Hatteberg/Wilson platoons would both be very productive and would leave us with a ton of power on the bench vs. RHP, which always comes in handy. Hopefully Phillips shows some progress from last year and Gonzalez should at least provide solid power despite being basically useless in every other way offensively. With the offense settled, let's move on to the pitching staff.
SP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Milton
SP Lohse (not terribly exciting, but he's a cheaper and probably better option than the ridiculous market right now)
SP ???
RP Majewski
RP Bray
RP Stanton
RP Cormier
RP Coffey
That leaves us three spots to play with on the pitching staff, one starter, one guy capable of either middle or long relief, and hopefully a guy capable of closing.
Organizational candidates:
SP Brandon Claussen
SP Elizardo Ramirez
SP/RP Matt Belisle
RP Brian Shackelford
RP Jon Coutlangus
RP David Shafer
RP Calvin Medlock
It is my personal opinion that Rheal Cormier will be off the team by June, but until then, I doubt Love Shack gets the LOOGY spot that he has earned (.82 ERA vs. LHB last year, 20.25 against RHP -- another interesting split I found is his 17.47 ERA at home vs. just 1.69 on the road. Small sample sizes, but still interesting.) The last three guys on the list are big longshots for the opening day roster, though we'll probably see all three at some point during the year. I'll guess that Claussen wins the last rotation spot in spring training and Belisle fills the long-relief/spot-starter role, with Elizardo ready to be called to the majors when he's inevitably needed. Signing a FA starter is possible, but with the market as it is, we'd end up paying more than we did for Milton for a guy who probably won't be much better. Staying in the organization and waiting for Homer is probably the best bet.
That leaves one more spot in the pen to be filled, and it needs to be filled with somebody who can close. Would anyone feel comfortable with Coffey or Stanton there this year? The FA options out there right now aren't exciting, but Eric Gagne, Mr. David Weathers, Danys Baez, and Joe Borowski are probably the best options there. There are problems with each of those options. Gagne can't stay healthy and is still gonna get quite a bit of money. Weathers has been decent for us but we might be better off letting him go and taking the 1st rounder he'll net us. Last I heard, Baez wanted a contract better than the 4 years, $18 mil that Justin Speier got. Borowski might be the best option, as he has been a solid closer in the past and probably won't break the bank, though rumor has it the Red Sox may have interest. Other potential bullpen options include David Riske, Arthur Rhodes, Roberto Hernandez, Ron Villone, and Miguel Batista. I actually would like going after Batista, as he has closing experience in Toronto and pounds the ball into the ground. And he's just a cool dude, since he wants to write mystery novels and knows how to throw 15 separate pitches with a degree of competency (though rarely a degree of control). He's also been a starter, but I think he'd be willing to do either. I'm gonna randomly pencil him in as our closer for next year just for the hell of it.
At that, our opening day roster in 2007 could look like this:
C Ross
C Valentin
1B Hatteberg
1B/RF/LF Wilson
2B Phillips
2B/3B/SS Harris
SS Gonzalez
SS/3B Castro
3B Encarnacion
LF Dunn
CF Griffey
RF/CF/LF Denorfia
RF/CF/LF/2B/3B Freel
SP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Lohse
SP Milton
SP Claussen
SP/RP Belisle
RP Majewski
RP Bray
RP Cormier
RP Coffey
RP Stanton
CL Batista
Now, my rough estimate for the Reds salary right now, excluding my wishfully thinking Batista and Wilson signings and estimating arb numbers, is just a touch under $59 mil. Assuming Bobby wasn't blowing smoke when he said the payroll would be raised, I think we're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-15 mil to work with still, which is enough to sign Wilson and Batista with plenty of room to spare.
Now, how plausible do you think that roster actually is, and how successful do you think it would be able to be? Do you believe we will stand pat in RF as I do, or do you think we could pursue a mid-level bat like David Dellucci, Jose Guillen, or Aubrey Huff? Would you be pleased with the offseason if this was the roster? Which FAs would you like to see pursued? I demand your feedback.
P.S. - RHM, I want your bod.
Welcome back, Geki. We’ve missed you.
RE plausibility of roster: I don’t see Kriv-dawg actually pursuing Craig Wilson, much as I would like him to. They do need a righty first baseman, though, and he seems like an obvious match to me, so maybe he’ll surprise me. Other than that, and the fact that I think the Lizard will be on the roster on opening day, I think it sounds pretty plausible.
RE success of roster: As for success, it’s a line-up that lacks much lustre. I think it would probably do fine, but not be much to write home about. Sort of like the Twins.
RE RF: The organization has a distrust of Freel as an everyday anything, so I don’t think they’ll be willing to call him the right fielder. I think they brought in Crosby as insurance in RF in case Narron decides he still hates Denorfia. Which he does. So, yeah, I guess that’s another thing I’d question about the roster: I’d swap Deno with Crosby.
RE the success of the offseason: I wouldn’t consider it a particularly successful or unsuccessful off-season with this roster, personally. It looks pretty much like it did before, just a little Krivsky-ized–less power, more defense. Pretty unimpressive.
RE FAs: I don’t know enough yet to say which FAs I’d like to see pursued, except for Wilson.
RE my BOD: what, is that a new stat or something? 😛
Geki wrote, “I demand your feedback.”
While we typically do not give in to the demands of terrorists (just kidding), I think Olmedo is toast in this organization. Last year the Reds optioned Belisle to Sarasota and called up Harris on Aug. 31, which would have made him eligible for the postseason roster – Olmedo wasn’t called up until Sept. 4. We might even get Jerry Gil on the 25-man instead of Olmedo.
Belisle might end up in the running for the fifth starting slot. Claussen and Ramirez are questionable since they’re coming off injuries plus, like Olmedo, they’re another GM’s leftovers. Krivsky doesn’t hesitate to cut bait on somebody else’s mistakes (see Womack, Tony; see also LaRue, Jason; See also The Hudson And Hancock Chronicles). There’s not much in the organization that’s major league ready unless Krivsky does a 180 on Bailey in ST.
Valentin may not be in Krivsky’s long-term plans, either. Krivsky made a comment when LaRue was traded that “There’s still more work to be done there, but Ross and Valentin, we’re comfortable with that for now.” For now, yeah – it’s November, not April. That doesn’t bode well for Javy.
Kriv-Dawg sure isn’t going to sit on his hands for the next four months. I don’t expect any major, earth-shattering free agent signings, unless he lands a closer – he’ll go the trade route instead, and probably a series of transactions rather than a big blockbuster deal. I agree Borowski might be the best free agent option for a closer in a market that’s thin on closers. I also feel Wayne will add a righthanded hitter who can platoon with Hatteberg at 1B, and maybe play one or more other positions as well. Wilson would be a good fit. So would Millar, but last I read he was close to resigning with the Orioles.
HMZ
RHM – I don’t think it’s that the Reds distrust Freel starting at a position. I think they just value his versatility on the bench that much.
Ask Bellyscratcher about Jose Oquendo, if she’s old enough to remember him as a player – don’t know, and it’s not polite to ask a lady her age – but especially with Aurilia (who could play all four IF positions) unlikely to resign now that Gonzo is in a Reds uni, that has to be of some concern. Freel’s picture appears in the baseball dictionary next to the word Versatile – make him a starter and your bench loses a heck of a lot of versatility.
This does tend to infuriate fans to no end, but it’s simply a matter of numbers. You have 25 guys on the roster. Assuming 12 are pitchers, that gives you 13 position players. Most of those are your starting eight. Of the remaining 5, one is a catcher – if you’re carrying two catchers you can’t use that one as a pinch-hitter because if your starter gets hurt later in the game, you’ve got a big problem. So those other four guys have to do all the pinch-hitting, pinch-running, late-inning defensive replacement work, double-switches, and whatever else Narron wants to do, and back up all of the other seven positions in case a guy gets hurt or tossed out of the game by an umpire. The more versatile those four guys are, the better.
If they were keeping Freel in reserve and running a guy like Brandon Larson out there to play a regular position and be killing the team every day, I’d be screaming bloody murder, but there’s nobody in the projected starting eight who is Larson-class bad and deserves to be chased to Dayton by a band of irate fans bearing pitchforks and torches. The only guy who was even close now has a new job in Kansas City.
As it is, Freel gets beau coup playing time anyway because with this team, there’s often as many players lined up outside Doc Kremchek’s office as there are standing along the foul line while the national anthem(s) is/are being played. So him not being officially designated as one of the starting eight isn’t that big of a deal really. He ends up with as much playing time just the same.
HMZ
I pretty much see it the same way (the opening day roster that is, not Red Hot mama’s bod). I agree the bench looks weak without a Craig Wilson signing. The only other right handed 1B is Kevin Millar. I think that is a possibility too, though it excites me a lot less because of his age, and I don’t think he’s played outfield in quite some time. I like that Wilson can also play some RF so that gives Narron more flexibility, because Freel will no doubt be doing some time in CF when griffey pulls something or other and needs a few weeks of rehab.
The 5th starter will be a competition between Claussen, Belisle, and Elizardo. Belisle could be the leading candidate based on health and isn’t he also playing winter ball? Like you said, Elizardo won’t be far away and will surely get the call before long based on someone’s struggle or injury.
The only other question mark is closer. I could easily see Coffey or Bray one day being successful at that role, but after last year you can’t gamble on them being ready for it this year. If both fail who do we fall back on, Stanton? They could sign Guardado with an incentive laden contract for cheap and wait for him to return, and just hope Coffey/Bray/Stanton do the job in the meantime. Or like you suggest they could get one of the fringe closers available in free agency.
Personally I like Dotel — he had some big years for Houston as a set-up guy, but sort of had mixed results as a closer for the A’s. If they wanted to go real cheap they could go with Guillermo Mota (who has some experience and potential and a nasty disposition)) and figure between him and Coffey and Bray they can survive until Guardado is healthy. It really all depends on how much demand there is for the remaining relievers.
Maybe Schoenweis is the best option, based on how he did down the stretch in 06… but will they deal with Scott Boras? I doubt it. The Justin Speier contract might have serious ramifications for the Reds.
I don’t think we are going to get a clearcut closer via free agency, I think its going to be more of the same as last year with Bray and Coffey and Stanton and someone else splitting duties with Guardado joining up halfway through.
I have a question for you all… I have Harang and Arroyo in my keeper fantasy league. I can only keep one of them, which would you choose? I also have Cole Hamels, Jared Weaver, and John Maine, but those guys are all really young and I’ve been burned by young guns in the past (Sheets and Prior).. the young guys are a major risk for injury, so I think I prefer Arroyo or harang who both had better years overall anyhow, even if they don’t have as much longterm potential as the other guys. So who is better from a fantasy perspective? Harang completed more games and had 3 shutouts, and edged Bronson in Ks but he gave up more hits than innings pitched and didn’t do nearly as well at GABP where half the games are played.
Denorfia: I can’t imagine him not being on the team to start next year. They might not give him a shot to start, but he’ll be on the roster.
Belisle: I just don’t know that they want to give Belisle a chance to start full time. He’s been solid out of the pen and really has bullpen-type stuff. He hasn’t shown that he’s much of a starter yet and I just think they’ll like him more out of the pen than out of the rotation, given the alternatives.
Olmedo: I think his showing in Venezuela and the fact that he’s good defensively will keep him around enough to at least get a shot at making the team. He’s a Krivsky-type player.
Valentin: Given that Krivsky just signed him to an extension (and he’s an ex-Twin), I think he’s more likely to stick than Ross is. But I think both will be around next year.
Dotel: Depends on what kind of contract he’d want. He’s 33 and was terrible for New York last year. Not everybody rebounds from arm injuries, so I think running into the year with him as the plan at closer would be a mistake.
Mota: He’ll be out for the first 50 games of the season for a steroid suspension, so I doubt he’s an option.
Guardado: We can’t count on him being back for a significant part of next year nor can we count on him to be good if he does make it back.
Harang vs. Arroyo: Definitely Harang. Arroyo’s likely to regress and Harang’s strikeout ability makes him very valuable in fantasy leagues.
Geki, I disagree about Belisle. Everytime they try to use him outta the pen he develops arm soreness… he needs to be used in a steady predictable manner, with set number days of rest, which would work as #5 starter. He’s always been projected as a starter, going back to his days with Atlanta.
So far, that looks pretty reasonable. Of course, no one could have seen a third catcher being added. It’s stupefying. There just aren’t enough words.
Anyway, I expect Lizard to break camp with the club. He’s a solid starting pitcher whose stats were skewed by a few starts when he was injured. If the Reds medical staff were worth anything at diagnosing injuries, then perhaps he wouldn’t have gone down and missed the tail end of the year. I think he’ll bounce back, though.
My opinion of Lizard is he lacks the stuff to ever be a good major leaguer and will probably bounce around quite a bit. I don’t think he has a single plus pitch, to be honest.
There were times when Lizard had pinpoint control and a nice changeup… I think he had a couple of great starts vs Milwaukee… He worked with Soto and showed improved poise and command. I think he has potential I am not ready to write him off.
I think Lizard’s peak is as a mediocre 5, to be honest. His control is his best asset, but it’s not incredible. His fastball is straight as hell and peaks in the low-90s on a good day. His breaking ball doesn’t have much break and he’s prone to leaving it over the plate too much. His change is his best pitch and he disguises it extremely well, but there isn’t much difference in speed between it and his fastball so its effectiveness is somewhat limited. He isn’t gifted with much endurance and his frame makes him a pretty good bet for injuries in the future (he’s listed at 140 pounds – and I believe it). I hope he sticks around, but I think he’s just too hittable to ever be a successful major leaguer.
I wouldn’t project Lizard to be a #1 or even #3 starter, but an above average #4 or #5 is quite possible… and in fact until his injury he was exactly that. He had terrible offensive support last year but produced a good # of quality starts. I don’t know if weight necessarily indicates probability of injury… I see plenty of young stocky pitchers blow out their arms too.
I wouldn’t be too worried about it if he didn’t have a history of fatigue and injury already. Size worried are usually overblown (see: Tim Lincecum) and small guys certainly can succeed, but Lizard doesn’t have the electric stuff of many other small guys so he has less margin for error and injury. He almost never made it past 6 innings and I think what we saw when he was decent last year is pretty much as good as he’ll get. Maybe he’ll be useful, but I just don’t see him being anything more than an average 5.