By my calculations, this is what we're looking at right now.

C Valentin
C Ross

1B Hatteberg
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Gonzalez
SS/3B Castro

LF Dunn
CF Griffey
OF Denorfia
OF Freel

I think most are in agreement that as we stand right now, all of those players are locks for the opening day roster. Assuming we go with the typical 13 hitter/12 pitcher roster, that leaves us with two spots to fill offensively. Possible suitors for those two spots within the organization:

IF Olmedo
IF Harris
OF Crosby
OF Hopper

Perhaps some of you may see it differently, but with what we already have on the bench, none of those options look very appetizing. I saw it mentioned elsewhere on the site, but I really do think pursuit of Craig Wilson is almost something that is necessary. Hatteberg needs a platoon mate and the bench needs some power, and having a guy with versatility is also nice. Add Wilson and any of the above four players (probably Olmedo or Harris), throw in competent managing (wishful thinking, probably), and I think we'd have a fairly strong lineup that looked something like this.

vs. RHP

RF Freel/Denorfia (I'd like to see Freel playing about 2/3s of the games in RF)
1B Hatteberg
CF Griffey
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
C Valentin (Catcher should be a strict platoon)
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez

vs. LHP

RF Freel/Denorfia
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
CF Griffey
1B Wilson
C Ross
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez

Honestly, if Dunn and Griffey hit well next year (we'll say Dunn at .900 OPS, and something like .930 vs. RHP and .850 against LHP and Griffey at .850 OPS with .900 vs. RHP and .770 vs. LHP, that would have the ability to be a top-five offense. The Javy/Ross platoon and Hatteberg/Wilson platoons would both be very productive and would leave us with a ton of power on the bench vs. RHP, which always comes in handy. Hopefully Phillips shows some progress from last year and Gonzalez should at least provide solid power despite being basically useless in every other way offensively. With the offense settled, let's move on to the pitching staff.

SP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Milton
SP Lohse (not terribly exciting, but he's a cheaper and probably better option than the ridiculous market right now)
SP ???

RP Majewski
RP Bray
RP Stanton
RP Cormier
RP Coffey

That leaves us three spots to play with on the pitching staff, one starter, one guy capable of either middle or long relief, and hopefully a guy capable of closing.

Organizational candidates:

SP Brandon Claussen
SP Elizardo Ramirez
SP/RP Matt Belisle
RP Brian Shackelford
RP Jon Coutlangus
RP David Shafer
RP Calvin Medlock

It is my personal opinion that Rheal Cormier will be off the team by June, but until then, I doubt Love Shack gets the LOOGY spot that he has earned (.82 ERA vs. LHB last year, 20.25 against RHP -- another interesting split I found is his 17.47 ERA at home vs. just 1.69 on the road. Small sample sizes, but still interesting.) The last three guys on the list are big longshots for the opening day roster, though we'll probably see all three at some point during the year. I'll guess that Claussen wins the last rotation spot in spring training and Belisle fills the long-relief/spot-starter role, with Elizardo ready to be called to the majors when he's inevitably needed. Signing a FA starter is possible, but with the market as it is, we'd end up paying more than we did for Milton for a guy who probably won't be much better. Staying in the organization and waiting for Homer is probably the best bet.

That leaves one more spot in the pen to be filled, and it needs to be filled with somebody who can close. Would anyone feel comfortable with Coffey or Stanton there this year? The FA options out there right now aren't exciting, but Eric Gagne, Mr. David Weathers, Danys Baez, and Joe Borowski are probably the best options there. There are problems with each of those options. Gagne can't stay healthy and is still gonna get quite a bit of money. Weathers has been decent for us but we might be better off letting him go and taking the 1st rounder he'll net us. Last I heard, Baez wanted a contract better than the 4 years, $18 mil that Justin Speier got. Borowski might be the best option, as he has been a solid closer in the past and probably won't break the bank, though rumor has it the Red Sox may have interest. Other potential bullpen options include David Riske, Arthur Rhodes, Roberto Hernandez, Ron Villone, and Miguel Batista. I actually would like going after Batista, as he has closing experience in Toronto and pounds the ball into the ground. And he's just a cool dude, since he wants to write mystery novels and knows how to throw 15 separate pitches with a degree of competency (though rarely a degree of control). He's also been a starter, but I think he'd be willing to do either. I'm gonna randomly pencil him in as our closer for next year just for the hell of it.

At that, our opening day roster in 2007 could look like this:

C Ross
C Valentin
1B Hatteberg
1B/RF/LF Wilson
2B Phillips
2B/3B/SS Harris
SS Gonzalez
SS/3B Castro
3B Encarnacion
LF Dunn
CF Griffey
RF/CF/LF Denorfia
RF/CF/LF/2B/3B Freel

SP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Lohse
SP Milton
SP Claussen
SP/RP Belisle
RP Majewski
RP Bray
RP Cormier
RP Coffey
RP Stanton
CL Batista

Now, my rough estimate for the Reds salary right now, excluding my wishfully thinking Batista and Wilson signings and estimating arb numbers, is just a touch under $59 mil. Assuming Bobby wasn't blowing smoke when he said the payroll would be raised, I think we're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-15 mil to work with still, which is enough to sign Wilson and Batista with plenty of room to spare.

Now, how plausible do you think that roster actually is, and how successful do you think it would be able to be? Do you believe we will stand pat in RF as I do, or do you think we could pursue a mid-level bat like David Dellucci, Jose Guillen, or Aubrey Huff? Would you be pleased with the offseason if this was the roster? Which FAs would you like to see pursued? I demand your feedback.

P.S. - RHM, I want your bod.

Because he's already sold out. Today the Astros signed him to a 6-year/$100 million contract. Says Astros.com:

Lee's contract will pay him $11 million in 2007, plus a $3 million signing bonus. He will receive $12 million for 2008 and $18.5 million for each of the last four years of the contract, which runs through the 2012 season. The agreement contains a full no-trade clause for the first four years and a limited no-trade clause the final two years, during which Lee and the Astros must agree on which teams he can be dealt to in the event the Astros decide to trade him.

It's not that I ever expected the Reds to pursue Lee--we've already got a power left-fielder to worry about--but I'm not at all pleased to see him land in Houston. This was a team that we've always counted on to be offensively anemic. If they start hitting, what's next? The Cubs meeting expectations? The Brewers failing to go entirely unnoticed? The Pirates winning??

It's a mad world, my friends.

If Gary Matthews Jr, age 32, a career .263 hitter with little power or speed and a strikeout to walk ratio of approx. 2 to 1 is worth a whopping 5 year contract for 50 million, Adam Dunn is certainly a bargain for the Reds despite his glaring shortcomings.

Coming off a diappointing .239 season with 194 strikeouts and a slew of fielding miscues, it is safe to say that Adam Dunn's stock has never been lower. And yet he is a lock to hit 40+ home runs again. Is there really anywhere but up as far as his batting average is concerned? You have to give the new batting coach, Brook jacoby, an opportunity to give Dunner some new tips, advice, perspective, philosophy -- whatever it is those guys do to earn their salary.

I believe Krivsky has every intention of waiting on Dunn, although I wouldn't be shocked if he puts out feelers just to see what the market might be offering for the Big Donkey. Unless an offer is simply to good to resist, I expect him to hold pat. Let us not forgot that Dunn was his signing, one of his very first acts as GM. It's fine and good, to dump your predecessors long term contracts (LaRue) but when you start second-guessing yourself that is another matter, and I don't expect Krivsky to hit the panic button just yet.

Dunn's power is legendary. He will be just 27 years old in 2007 and already has 198 career home runs. If he hits 40 home runs for 10 more seasons, he is right around 600 and would still just be 37 years old. A couple of big years in there and assuming he can play into his 40s and your looking at a top 5 all-time home run hitter. Of course he would probably have the most strikeouots in history as well. The point is he very well might crack his way into the hall-of-fame by sheer foce of brute power. He certainly has a much much greater chance than Gary Matthews, Jr. and they are making the same salary right now.

What I would strongly recommend to all parties involved, is that Dunn be given agility and dexterity exercises from here on out. Nothing wrong with his hand-eye coordination, I am referring to his movement. He needs to look and act lighter on his feet. There must be training drills for this sort of thing, and now would be the time to explore those options. Have him tip toe around pylons and run through those tires and all of that.

I can't tell you how many times I saw Dunn pursue a ball in the outfield to only come up just inches short of reaching it. Incredibly frustrating to witness, and the resulting hits were backbreakers that went for doubles and triples. If runners were on base they scored easily. We know Dunn can't go airborne but if he can get better jumps and get his weight moving at the correct angle from the very beginning of the play, maybe some of those extrabase hits become huge rally-snuffing outs. Part of it must be confidence (lack of) because let's face it after grossly misplaying 3 or 4 balls on opening day he probably became much more tentative in his pursuit. Maybe I am wrong about that, I don't know firsthand what the guy is thinking, but like his batting average, his fielding and range can only get better, not worse, because right now its at rock-bottom. There's only one way left to go and that is up.

Right now Dunn is pretty much the key to this team. He bats in the heart of the order and he is in his prime and next to Griffey he absorbs the most salary. As Griffey's star fades, Dunn must be the one to pick up the power slack. He is at an absolute critical juncture as far as his tenure with the Reds is concerned. A big year showing improvement in his weak areas and perhaps he stays for the longhaul. One more season like the last one and he might be traded for middle relievers and prospects in a tragic salary dump. It can go either way, and that will be the major storyline for this season.

Just put up a human league profile about Bubba Crosby. Check it out to learn up on everyone's favorite new Bubba.

Bubba's Human League Profile

Player Profile on Reds.com
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