Divisional Comparison Continues: First Base
By
Amanda
Posted at 4:09 pm
Alas, the Reds-dissing continues as the comparison of the players in the NLC moves on to first base. Alack, this time it's much more justified:
Pujols 566 AB .320/.423/.643 48 HR 122 RBI 9 SB + Def Berkman 529 AB .301/.414/.558 34 HR 109 RBI 5 SB Hatteberg 460 AB .270/.360/.398 11 HR 62 RBI 1 SB Fielder 542 AB .280/.358/.513 30 HR 87 RBI 5 SB LaRoche 445 AB .279/.345/.526 24 HR 89 RBI 0 SB Lee 501 AB .299/.383/.567 32 HR 97 RBI 10 SB + Def This is an exciting group of players to say the least. It’s scary to think that the power numbers could be conservative guesses due to changes in 2007 that ZiPS might not account for. A healthy Derrek Lee will get closer to 550 AB (same with Berkman), and Pujols should approach 600. I wouldn’t consider any of them to be particularly prone to injury. Adam LaRoche won’t be platooning this year, so barring a stint on the DL, he’ll get well over his estimated 445 AB. That also might mean his batting average will take a hit, as he’ll face more left-handed pitching. Scott Hatteberg might lose some late season playing time to Joey Votto, so I’m not certain he’ll get 460 AB. Prince Fielder’s projections look about right to me. He’ll mash, just like his daddy.
STL=10 | HOU=9 | CHC=9 | MIL=7 | PIT=7 | CIN=4
Though I quibble with Conine's contribution being left out of the comparison, adding him in would hardly make first base a position to get excited about for the Reds compared to the other teams in the division.
I mean, we're talking about a position that, on other teams, has Albert Pujols and Derrek Lee. And we're also talking about the Reds, a team that hasn't depended on their first baseman for power since before Sean Casey.
But the Reds are a team that can't seem to turn around without someone hitting a home run, so I don't see the relative lack of production from first base as particularly problematic. I mean, that's what we have our left fielder, center fielder, third baseman, catcher, pinch hitter, and Bronson Arroyo for.
As for Joey Votto, isn't he still in AA Chattanooga? Given the organizational comfort with Hatteberg, I doubt we'll be seeing Votto this year before September. But come 2008, watch out, man: with Votto at age 24, Lee at 33, and Pujols at “29” the Reds will moving up in this position.
The way I look at Hatteberg is this: he is dependable and won’t strike out much. That’s how we used to think of Casey until the double-play bugaboo made him into a negative impact player. Hatteberg has a little bit more pop in his bat than Casey did and I don’t think anyone on earth is slower than Casey. So when you consider the money saved by going with Hatteberg over Casey, that probably explains why we were able to lock up Harang and Arroyo, so Hatteberg is an inexpensive dependable guy who breaks up the swing for the fences approach that a lot of our guys have. Conine is probably similiar in a lot of respects, though his age bothers me.. but maybe he is due for a resurgence by playing at GABP, ala Randa & Aurilia.
Yes I think Votto is at least a year away though we may get a glimpse of him in Sept. if he does well in Louisville. Obviously they are grooming him to take over for Hatteberg eventually.
So we lose power and RBIs at this position when compared to our rivals, but we don’t lose too much in OBP or defense and we save a ton of cash by comparison so we can spend elsewhere to make up the difference of production.
Came across this [url=http://oriolepost.blogspot.com/2007/02/can-reds-win-al-central-cincinnati-reds.html]post[/url] today, from a “neutral party” – that is, an Orioles fan.
[quote]Do the Reds have enough to compete in the NL Central? Maybe not, but then again the NL Central is still fairly weak, and everyone in the division with exception of the Pittsburgh Pirates have a chance to contend for a division title.[/quote]
🙂
Votto was in AA last year and put up a 955 OPS. The only guy who had a higher OPS for Chattanooga last year was Dewayne Wise, and he only had 50 at-bats. So Votto figures to move up to AAA this year. FWIW, I’m not expecting him to be the next Albert Pujols. As a major league hitter, I think he will be more along the lines of a righthanded Hal Morris.
Oh yeah, Votto’s a righthanded hitter. If he gets to Louisville and starts tearing up the IL and Conine flops as Hatteberg’s platoon partner at 1B, we could see Votto in Cinci a few months sooner than people think to platoon at 1B. Only thing is, he’s never played the OF as far as I know. He played 3B his first pro year and has been a 1B/DH since 2003. So somebody else would have to assume whatever Conine’s OF role was.