Monthly Archives: February 2007

February 19, 2007

Divisional Comparison Continues: Second Base

The Pittsburgh Lumber Co has been doing a comparison of NLC teams on a position-by-position basis. Since I've been feeling contrary, I've been doing my own responses to these comparisons. This time we're talking about second base. You can also read what I had to say about the catcher and first base.

STL Kennedy 440 AB .273/.332/.366 4 HR 49 RBI 15 SB
HOU Biggio 530 AB .255/.311/.419 18 HR 52 RBI 5 SB
CIN Phillips 511 AB .266/.320/.405 14 HR 56 RBI 17 SB
MIL Weeks 485 AB .262/.343/.433 16 HR 59 RBI 20 SB
PIT Castillo 446 AB .256/.304/.388 12 HR 52 RBI 4 SB
CHC DeRosa 404 AB .265/.324/.403 8 HR 49 RBI 2 SB

This is where it gets tough, I think. I can’t say that any one of these guys is a better defender than the group (although Biggio and DeRosa are towards the bottom of the list). Castillo is more of a risk/reward type than the others; I think Phillips, Kennedy and Weeks are more dependable than Jose, but that the Pirate has the highest ceiling in the field. Still, I’m basically disregarding defense in this ranking, as there’s not a significant separation.

The question remains: How do I sort these players? It’s nearly impossible to glance at the statistics and weigh the importance of power against steals, batting average against slugging. They’re all built in different molds. Craig Biggio isn’t the best second baseman just because he’s projected to hit 18 bombs.

For catchers and first baseman, there was a somewhat clear order to the players. Here, though, I’ll rely on a definite metric for the rankings. On-base percentage plus slugging percentage is a stat that should cover everything I find to be pertinent on offense. Looking at OPS, I get Rickie Weeks at the top, then a group of Biggio, DeRosa and Phillips, then Kennedy and Castillo. The players are separated by only thousandths of a percentage point, so subjectivity is again forced into play.

Weeks is the top dog, he’ll get the 10. Out of the next triumvirate, I like Phillips the best–I think he has the most upside, and should play the best defense. He’ll run, too, providing a skill that the other two don’t. Mark Loretta’s presence in Houston knocks Biggio down a peg, as it’s unlikely that Craig will get more than his projected 440 at bats. Out of the last two, I’ll take Castillo over Kennedy. Jose has the potential to play Gold Glove-caliber defense and hit for power, while Adam’s ZiPS numbers are seemingly his ceiling.

The separation is minimal, so the subtractions from player to player are small.

MIL=10 | CIN=8 | CHC=7 | HOU=7 | PIT=6| STL=6

The sentence “he'll get the 10” tells me that again, I've misunderstood how this comparison is being done. I was under the impression that you'd be able to add up the scores for each team to project who would be the best in 2007, but if someone at every position will receive a 10, that's certainly not the case. Definitely Rickie Weeks wouldn't be contributing the same number of points to the Brewers' total as Albert Pujols is adding to that of the Cardinals.

You think a comparison like this is going to be easy, until you actually sit down and dig into the details.

In any event, it's hard to complain about Phillips coming in second with a score of 8, though personally I'd give him bonus points for an excellent attitude. Where is the Spunkiness category, anyway?

February 17, 2007

It Took Him Two Months to Come Up With That?

Pitchers and catchers report today. Yippee!

Today is also the day we find out the big secret of how Ken Griffey, Jr. broke his hand:

Griffey was wrestling with his two sons, Trey and Tevin, and his daughter, Taryn, when 13-year old Trey knocked him off balance. Trying to avoid falling onto his kids, Griffey landed awkwardly on his left hand.

At least he didn't say he broke it shovelling snow.

February 16, 2007

As If the Cubs Outfield Didn’t Already Make Me Laugh…

You can always count on Goat Riders of the Apocalypse for a good photo essay. I'm amazed that they can even think about potential Cliff Floyd injuries in the wake of the disasterous-and-totally-unexpected Kerry Wood injury that we found out about this morning.

February 16, 2007

Divisional Comparison Continues: First Base

Alas, the Reds-dissing continues as the comparison of the players in the NLC moves on to first base. Alack, this time it's much more justified:

Pujols 566 AB .320/.423/.643 48 HR 122 RBI 9 SB + Def
Berkman 529 AB .301/.414/.558 34 HR 109 RBI 5 SB
Hatteberg 460 AB .270/.360/.398 11 HR 62 RBI 1 SB
Fielder 542 AB .280/.358/.513 30 HR 87 RBI 5 SB
LaRoche 445 AB .279/.345/.526 24 HR 89 RBI 0 SB
Lee 501 AB .299/.383/.567 32 HR 97 RBI 10 SB + Def

This is an exciting group of players to say the least. It’s scary to think that the power numbers could be conservative guesses due to changes in 2007 that ZiPS might not account for. A healthy Derrek Lee will get closer to 550 AB (same with Berkman), and Pujols should approach 600. I wouldn’t consider any of them to be particularly prone to injury. Adam LaRoche won’t be platooning this year, so barring a stint on the DL, he’ll get well over his estimated 445 AB. That also might mean his batting average will take a hit, as he’ll face more left-handed pitching. Scott Hatteberg might lose some late season playing time to Joey Votto, so I’m not certain he’ll get 460 AB. Prince Fielder’s projections look about right to me. He’ll mash, just like his daddy.

STL=10 | HOU=9 | CHC=9 | MIL=7 | PIT=7 | CIN=4

Though I quibble with Conine's contribution being left out of the comparison, adding him in would hardly make first base a position to get excited about for the Reds compared to the other teams in the division.

I mean, we're talking about a position that, on other teams, has Albert Pujols and Derrek Lee. And we're also talking about the Reds, a team that hasn't depended on their first baseman for power since before Sean Casey.

But the Reds are a team that can't seem to turn around without someone hitting a home run, so I don't see the relative lack of production from first base as particularly problematic. I mean, that's what we have our left fielder, center fielder, third baseman, catcher, pinch hitter, and Bronson Arroyo for.

As for Joey Votto, isn't he still in AA Chattanooga? Given the organizational comfort with Hatteberg, I doubt we'll be seeing Votto this year before September. But come 2008, watch out, man: with Votto at age 24, Lee at 33, and Pujols at “29” the Reds will moving up in this position.

February 16, 2007

Stop the Presses! Junior’s Not Hurt!!

C. Trent has this from sunny Sarasota:

Ken Griffey Jr. said he feels good and his hand is fine. He's waiting for Dr. Kremchek to get here to reevaluate his hand.

And what of the mysterious event that caused the injury? Was it a hot tub incident?

With the assembled media around, he wouldn't address the particulars of his injury -- at first saying he was fishing with his family and caught a bullshark, it jumped into his boat and he was defending his kids. That, obviously -- literally and figuratively, was a fish story. The real story? Well, just wait a bit.

Oh that prankster!

C. Trent goes on to say that Griffey also wouldn't comment on a possible change to right field. Very forthcoming with the details today, that Griffey.