Monthly Archives: February 2007

February 16, 2007

Narron on the Hot Seat?

Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News thinks that Reds' manager Jerry Narron is on the hot seat:

Jerry Narron, Cincinnati. The Reds did nothing significant in the offseason to address major holes, which doesn't bode well for a manager inherited by the current general manager.

By my recollection, all of the Reds' holes have been addressed (if not always adequately, imo), but even if they weren't, how would that have anything to do with the manager?

Also, by my recollection, Narron's contract has been extended since general manager Wayne Krivsky came aboard, so he's not really “inherited” anymore.

Besides which, Lou Piniella isn't available at the moment, so I think Narron will live to pinch-hit inappropriately another day.

February 16, 2007

Get Well Soon, Nuxy

Joe Nuxhall is in the hospital again, per The Enquirer:

Reds baseball legend Joe Nuxhall is expected to remain in a Florida hospital for a few more days while doctors conduct medical tests for a recurrence of lymphoma, his son said today.

In Florida for the team's annual spring training, Nuxhall, 78, went to Sarasota Memorial Hospital Wednesday for previously scheduled tests related to complications from lymphoma, said his son, Kim Nuxhall.

But Kim Nuxhall said doctors realized his lymphoma, detected in September 2003, has come back.

We here at RHM are thinking about you Nuxy. Get well soon.

UPDATE 4:31 p.m.
There are some additional details on Reds.com that Marty Brennaman shared after visiting Joe in the hospital:

Marty Brennaman, the 78-year-old Nuxhall's longtime broadcast partner, spent 90 minutes visiting “The Ol' Lefthander” at the hospital on Friday.

“He has the same amazing outlook about this setback as he's had about every one of them,” Brennaman said. “He doesn't leave open any possibility that he won't beat it, again.”

February 16, 2007

Rebutting More Pirate-Centric Analysis: Catcher

The discussion of the NLC rankings generated by bloggers from teams around the division was so lively that Cory of the Pittsburgh Lumber Company has continued along the same lines with a position-by-position comparison of the teams. Today he talks about the catchers and first basemen.

You can read the ground rules and the see the assumptions he's made about who will be playing each position for each team here. This is worth checking in to because the numbers he uses are from a projection mechanism rather than, say, 2006. So if you think it's pretty odd that, for example, David Ross could have 247 ABs last season when he was the #2 catcher and only 197 next season when he's the #1, you don't have any room to argue. ZiPS said so.

Me, I'm going to get right down to saying why he's wrong, starting with the catcher position. Cory says:

[STL] Molina 423 AB .232/.279/.338 8 HR 53 RBI 1 SB + Def
[HOU] Ausmus 328 AB .232/.309/.284 1 HR 31 RBI 2 SB + Def
[CIN] Ross 197 AB .234/.326/.482 12 HR 37 RBI 0 SB
[MIL] Estrada 401 AB .277/.323/.404 8 HR 49 RBI 0 SB
[PIT] Paulino 452 AB .272/.327/.378 8 HR 49 RBI 1 SB
[CHC] Barrett 403 AB .285/.349/.481 15 HR 63 RBI 0 SB

Eerily similar, no? I’d split them into four groups: The complete player (Barrett), the decent bats (Estrada and Paulino) with promise, the light-hitting gloves (Molina and Ausmus) and should be Javier Valentin (Ross). Even Barrett has his concerns, though, as he missed significant time to injury in 2006. Johnny Estrada should be a nice fit in Milwaukee, but Damian Miller will see playing time, too. Paulino has the most upside in the group, but that also means that he could flop. (The homer in me says that he won’t.) Ausmus and Ross are both one-tool players. If I had a choice, I’d go with the glove man over the “power” bat.

Now, to assign a ranking system to those numbers and categories. I’m going go from one to 10 (bigger is better), starting with 10 for the best player in the group and subtracting for the drop-off from player to player. (This is where you call me out for being an idiot.)

CHC=10 | MIL=7 | PIT=7 | STL=5 | HOU=3 | CIN=3

If you follow the link to the page where this comparison is done, you'll see this sentence in the introductory paragraph:

“Baseball is driven by numbers”

I'd like to know how you can claim that baseball is driven by numbers, list the numbers above, and rank David Ross last among them. You're talking about a guy with half the number of ABs of the other guys in the list, but more home runs than all but one. In fact, I'm failing to see a single category in which Ross comes in last, let alone support for ranking him last over all.

I guess that the sin of being a “power” bat must be his downfall. Given that driving in a lot of runs is bad, plus my suspicion that Ross is actually more powerful than the magic 8 ball says, he probably ought to be ranked even lower. A negative number, maybe.

And while I enjoy a nice jab in favor of Javier Valentín as much as the next person (much more than the next person, in fact), it doesn't make sense here. By his own projections, half the time the catcher *is* Javy. In that case, it would make a whole lot more sense to combine Javy's number with Ross's before doing the comparison.

If you want to rag on the Reds about their catching situation, you don't have to project (and then ignore) the numbers. There's plenty of actual material there.

For example, how about the fact that Krivsky seems hell-bent on keeping three catchers on the active roster? Adding in Chad Moeller's contribution, small as it is likely to be, wouldn't do anyone any good. (Unless I'm right about that power-is-bad thing.)

Or, considering that manager Jerry Narron used 140 different starting line-ups last season, there's a non-zero probability that he'll have Scott Hatteberg or Ryan Freel catching a game at some point. Where's the projection on that?

But the fact is that the catcher's position has been a major strength for the Reds for two years running, and there's no reason to think that's going to change in 2007.

February 16, 2007

Hot Tub 1, Kerry Wood 0

So, Kerry Wood is already hurt:

Oft-injured Kerry Wood is out again this time because of a flub in a hot tub.

The Chicago Cubs pitcher is not expected to throw off the mound for a few days after he slipped this week getting out of a hot tub at home. Wood landed on his stomach and chest.

That's an injury I hadn't foreseen when talking about the Baby Bear Boo-Boos. Note to Cubs: buy the man some Aqua Socks.

February 15, 2007

$36.5 Million Says You Can’t

Hey, Aaron, you wanna bet I can't knock off Saarloos's hat with this ball?

Hey, Aaron, you wanna bet I can't knock off Saarloos's hat with this ball?

AP Photo/Al Behrman. Via Yahoo! Sports.