Last Game
The Brewers evened the series yesterday at 1 game apiece, beating the Reds 7-1. Bronson Arroyo turned in a crappy performance, allowing 4 of those 7 runs in his 6 innings. The bullpen brought gasoline to the fire with every reliever allowing runs, combining to let 4 more runs to score. The poor pitching was a disappointment after the Reds scored first in the bottom of the first thanks to a double from Joey Votto. But the offense managed no runs after that.

Next Game
The Reds will attempt to win the series today, sending Mat Latos out against Wily “Mo” Peralta. Latos had one of his best outings of the season in his last start, and has been competing with Johnny Cueto for being the best starter on the team since the All Star break. The game, which is the final regular season game at Great American Ball Park this year, starts at 12:35pm.

Cueto’s chance of winning elite award relies on advanced metrics
Cincinnati Enquirer beat reporter John Fay delved into statistics deeper than wins, losses, ERA, and strikeouts in an article about Johnny Cueto. With Cueto’s struggles to get his 18th win–it took him 4 tries–his case for the Cy Young award based on gaudy win totals fell apart. But Fay, who will be voting for the award this year, doesn’t think Cueto’s out of the running and compares him to R.A. Dickey, Kyle Lohse, and Gio Gonzalez.

I decided to take a look at home-road splits for those four. If you factor in the Park Factor, Cueto deserves strong consideration. Of the aforementioned contenders, he pitches in the most hitter-friendly park, Great American Ball Park — or as Homer Bailey calls it “a Little League park.”

GAPB yields the third most home runs in baseball and the ninth most runs. Nationals Park, where Gonzalez pitches, is 11th and 10th. Dickey’s home yard, Citi Field, is 13th and 25th. Lohse’s home park, Busch Stadium, is 20th and 18th.

It would be awesome to have Cueto pick up Cincinnati’s first Cy Young. As Fay points out, Cueto does lead in Wins above Replacement (WAR) as reported by ESPN.com and Baseball-Reference.com and is second on FanGraphs.com. It would be a surprise pick, though, given the resistance to modern stats by so many of the other voters.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The Reds have 4 pitchers–Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Mat Latos–with at least 30 starts each and a 5th–Mike Leake–scheduled to make his 30th on Saturday at Pittsburgh. Only 7 staffs in Major League history produced 5 pitchers with at least 30 starts each: 1977 Dodgers, 1980 A’s, 1993 Dodgers, 2003 Mariners, 2005 Cardinals, 2005 Indians and 2006 White Sox.

Last Game
After their day off on Monday, the Reds won the series opener with the Brewers, 4-2, last night. It got Johnny Cueto his 19th win of the season (so 20 is still a possibility) and got Aroldis Chapman his 36th save (his first since he’s been back from that arm weakness). Dioner Navarro went 2-for-3 with 2 RBI.

Next Game
The series continues tonight at 7:10 p.m. Bronson Arroyo (RHP, 12-8, 3.63 ERA) takes on Shaun Marcum (RHP, 5-4, 3.86 ERA). Marcum has done well since returning from the DL, but Arroyo has been on-freaking-fire for the last month plus. He’s allowed only 1 run over 8 innings his last time out, against the Dodgers on Friday.

Get Well Soon, Dusty
The tight-lip-ness of the Reds about the condition of manager Dusty Baker seemed to indicate there was something big they weren’t telling us, and that did turn out to be the case. As he was being discharged from the hospital in Chicago, he suffered a minor stroke and was treated on the spot.

Baker had been admitted to the hospital for an irregular heartbeat, and apparently small strokes aren’t uncommon in people who have that condition, so the folks at the hospital knew to be on the lookout for it and responded promptly. He’s expected to make a full recovery and may even be back to managing the team when they play the last regular season series in St. Louis.

Interestingly, another thing that’s typical for people with Baker’s condition is for them to retain water. The treatment apparently caused him to lose a bunch of water weight because all the guys who are being quoted in the stories are saying how good he looks. He hasn’t met with the media since he’s been in the hospital, so it’ll be quite the unveiling of a slender Baker come the St. Louis series.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The last time the Reds had a 20-game winning pitcher was 24 years ago (1988) when Danny Jackson won 23 games. Johnny Cueto was 2 years old when that happened.