Last Game

Mat Latos turned in another excellent outing, allowing just 1 run over 7 innings. The bullpen, no doubt thoroughly shamed by the previous game’s suckitude, was lights-out, too.

Unfortunately, the Reds were again without offense and unable to score one measly run. Then Todd Frazier stepped up to the plate in the 9th inning with two outs and hit a solo shot to center field to tie the game. Jay Bruce followed with a single, and Dioner Navarro hit a walk-off triple to bring him in and win the last regular season game at Great American Ball Park.

Next Game
Cincinnati travels to Pittsburgh to start their final regular season road trip of the year. The Pirates–one of the sadder stories of the season–will be fighting to finish the year with their first winning record in a generation. The Reds will be fighting for home field advantage in the playoffs. It will be A. J. Burnett versus Homer Bailey at 7:05pm.

No surprises planned for post-season roster
With just 6 games left in the regular season, thoughts among Reds fans are turning towards who will be named to the roster for the first playoff series. The managerial staff is thinking about it, too.

Acting manager Chris Speier says don’t expect any shockers.

“A lot of it is you want to have the best roster you can,” Speier said. “But you take into consideration the contribution people have made throughout the year. I’m sure the final roster won’t have too many surprises.”

Speier met with manager Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty once to discuss the potential roster, and there isn’t much capability for surprises. Short of calling on Billy Hamilton–who hasn’t played a Major League game–Cincinnati is likely to go with those who got them where they are this year.

From the rotation, Mike Leake is the likeliest to be left off. Five starters aren’t needed in the playoffs, and the bullpen is packed with proven successful options.

For the position players, Wilson Valdez will probably make the team, as much as I might not like it. Didi Gregorius would be a better option, but that promise of no surprises removes him from the running. Devin Mesoraco, the catcher of the future, is not the catcher of the present, so he is unlikely to make it.

The final roster won’t be decided upon until after the final game with the St. Louis Cardinals.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The Reds’ season attendance total was 2,347,251. That puts them at second place in Great American Ball Park history. First place goes to 2003, when the park opened. That year, the team drew 2,355,259. Missed it by 8,008.

Last Game
The Brewers evened the series yesterday at 1 game apiece, beating the Reds 7-1. Bronson Arroyo turned in a crappy performance, allowing 4 of those 7 runs in his 6 innings. The bullpen brought gasoline to the fire with every reliever allowing runs, combining to let 4 more runs to score. The poor pitching was a disappointment after the Reds scored first in the bottom of the first thanks to a double from Joey Votto. But the offense managed no runs after that.

Next Game
The Reds will attempt to win the series today, sending Mat Latos out against Wily “Mo” Peralta. Latos had one of his best outings of the season in his last start, and has been competing with Johnny Cueto for being the best starter on the team since the All Star break. The game, which is the final regular season game at Great American Ball Park this year, starts at 12:35pm.

Cueto’s chance of winning elite award relies on advanced metrics
Cincinnati Enquirer beat reporter John Fay delved into statistics deeper than wins, losses, ERA, and strikeouts in an article about Johnny Cueto. With Cueto’s struggles to get his 18th win–it took him 4 tries–his case for the Cy Young award based on gaudy win totals fell apart. But Fay, who will be voting for the award this year, doesn’t think Cueto’s out of the running and compares him to R.A. Dickey, Kyle Lohse, and Gio Gonzalez.

I decided to take a look at home-road splits for those four. If you factor in the Park Factor, Cueto deserves strong consideration. Of the aforementioned contenders, he pitches in the most hitter-friendly park, Great American Ball Park — or as Homer Bailey calls it “a Little League park.”

GAPB yields the third most home runs in baseball and the ninth most runs. Nationals Park, where Gonzalez pitches, is 11th and 10th. Dickey’s home yard, Citi Field, is 13th and 25th. Lohse’s home park, Busch Stadium, is 20th and 18th.

It would be awesome to have Cueto pick up Cincinnati’s first Cy Young. As Fay points out, Cueto does lead in Wins above Replacement (WAR) as reported by ESPN.com and Baseball-Reference.com and is second on FanGraphs.com. It would be a surprise pick, though, given the resistance to modern stats by so many of the other voters.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The Reds have 4 pitchers–Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Mat Latos–with at least 30 starts each and a 5th–Mike Leake–scheduled to make his 30th on Saturday at Pittsburgh. Only 7 staffs in Major League history produced 5 pitchers with at least 30 starts each: 1977 Dodgers, 1980 A’s, 1993 Dodgers, 2003 Mariners, 2005 Cardinals, 2005 Indians and 2006 White Sox.