Yearly Archives: 2012

July 7, 2012

Can the Reds avoid another Willy Taveras situation?

The news from the Twitters yesterday centered around a message from ESPN’s Buster Olney saying that the Cincinnati Reds were looking at Philadelphia Phillies’ outfielder Juan Pierre.

As the Phillies prepare for possible sell-off, Juan Pierre drawing interest, including from the Cincinnati Reds.

Pierre is a 35-year-old left-fielder who many may recognize as the super-fast guy who used to lead-off and patrol center field for the Florida Marlins a decade ago. He was a guy who relied on his speed to be successful, and as he’s aged, his productivity has declined with his speed.

I’m happy to hear that the Reds are exploring the market. So often it seems like General Manager is asleep at the wheel even when it’s clear the team has gaping holes. The biggest problems with the 2012 club are ones that were identified and left un-addressed in the off-season: lead-off, left field, and the bench.

Presumably, Pierre would serve to improve the lead-off and left-field problem. However, after checking out Pierre’s stats and reading Redleg Nation’s review of Pierre, I think the better move would be doing nothing at all.

Pierre is a singles hitter who doesn’t walk much. His on-base percentage is almost directly tied to his batting average.

Pierre’s plate discipline is showing tell-tale signs of decline. His O-Swing rate (percentage of times the batter swings at a pitch outside the strike zone) has shot up from 27.6% last year to 33.9% this year. Over 30% O-Swing you’re usually looking at power hitters, like Phillips, Frazier, Ludwick etc. (JoeyMVP has a team-low 22% O-Swing). But with Pierre, you get zero power from his lack of discipline.

Keep in mind the importance of walking to OBP. Players go through slumps in batting average all the time. If their walk-rate is an important part of their OBP, then their offensive contribution doesn’t suffer as much. But if their OBP is made up to a large degree by their AVG, as it is with players like Pierre (and Heisey, and Phillips and Cozart and …) then the offense suffers from inconsistency. Really, the very last thing the erratic Reds offense needs right now is another hitter who doesn’t walk.

That last sentence is what really makes me the most scared about the Reds having Pierre. He’s hitting better than he has in a while right now, which means he’s likely to enter into a slump at some point. Without the ability to walk and get on base during a slump, he’ll just be another automatic out in the Reds’ lineup. In short, he’d be another Willy Taveras and no better than Drew Stubbs.

There are better upgrade options out there, depending on how much the club is willing to give up. If it were me, I’d certainly be exploring those, but Pierre would be one of the last guys I considered.

I think the best plan now is to shuffle the lineup. Move Brandon Phillips back to the lead-off position. Have Ryan Hanigan bat second. Move Todd Frazier to clean-up, and drop Stubbs and Zach Cozart down a few spots. As far as long-term plans for lead-off and center field, right now it feels like Billy Hamilton–he of the .413 on-base percentage and 104 steals in high A-ball–is likely the guy. Unfortunately, he’s unlikely to be ready until next year, at the earliest.

Until then, the best move might be no move at all. Which I would take over another Willy Taveras.

July 7, 2012

Game 83: Reds 6, Padres 0

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W: Arroyo (4-5) L: Wells (1-2)

Boxscore

Good-royo made an appearance for the Reds last night and we finally saw the kind of game that a team like the Reds ought to be playing against a team like the Padres. Final score: Reds 6, Padres 0.

Bronson Arroyo pitched a complete damn game, giving up all zero runs on 3 hits and 1 walk. He struck out 8, which is very unusual for him. He must have ordered what Mat Latos was having.

Except for Brandon Phillips, the whole line-up contributed hits, even Arroyo. It’s really feast or famine with these guys sometimes. Zack Cozart got the scoring started with the home run to lead off the game. Ryan Hanigan kept it going in the seventh inning with a 2-run shot. Todd Frazier also put in a 2-run home run in the eighth.

Drew Stubbs finally broke his hit drought in the ninth inning with a double to center field. Joey Votto then knocked him in for the sixth run of the game. Before that hit, Stubbs had gone 0-for-32, tying the illustrious Willy Taveras for the greatest number of ABs without a hit. That’s some rarefied air, my friends.

The win brings the Reds record to 45-38. They remain in second place in the NLC, but at least haven’t dropped any further back. The third game of the four-game series is tonight at 10:05 p.m. Homer Bailey (6-6, 4.24 ERA) takes on Clayton Richard (6-8, 3.64 ERA).

July 6, 2012

Game 82: Reds 1, Padres 2

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W: Street (2-0) L: Ondrusek (3-2)

Boxscore

Mat Latos was great in the high-pressure game against his old team, but Reds still lost in San Diego, 1-2.

Latos pitched 7.0 inning, allowing 0 runs on just 4 hits and 2 walks. Too bad for him that Sean Marshall couldn’t even get out of the eighth before giving up the tie, and Logan Ondrusek couldn’t even get an out in the ninth before he put the winning run on base for Sam LeCure to allow to score.

The offense was a stink-fest. Only four guys even got hits: Brandon Phillips (2), Chris Heisey (2), Wilson Valdez, and Todd Frazier. Heisey got the RBI and Jay Bruce, who reached on a walk, got the run scored.

The Reds’ offense is again becoming worrisome. They’ve been in slumps before, but at some point you just have to start wondering if the team doesn’t have what it takes to actually outperform the Pirates. Hopefully getting off the west coast and relaxing over the All Star breaks will completely change my perspective.

The loss brings the Reds’ record to 44-38. They are 2.0 games out of first place and 2.5 games out of third. Tonight they continue the 4-game series against the Padres at 10:05 p.m. Bronson Arroyo, (3-5, 4.06 ERA) takes on Kip Wells (1-1, 1.50 ERA).

July 6, 2012

Daily Brief: Reds face former Reds in San Diego

Last Game
Last night Mat Latos went out against Edinson Volquez in an obvious opportunity to evaluate whether the Reds or the Padres got the better of the trade for the two pitchers.

Pitcher Pitches IP Hits Runs Walks Strikeouts
Latos 109 7.0 4 0 2 8
Volquez 127 7.0 5 1 3 10

As you can see, they were too similar to call (though I’d point out that Volquez wasn’t the only piece the Reds gave up in that particular trade). Unfortunately for the Reds, Volquez won out in the “who has the better bullpen” category when Sean Marshall blew the save and Logan Ondrusek gave up the winning run. Final score: Reds 1, Padres 2.

Next Game
The Reds continue the 4-game series against the Padres tonight. Bronson Arroyo (3-5, 4.06 ERA) will take on Kip Wells (1-1, 1.50 ERA). First pitch at 10:05 p.m.

Winning One for the Kipper
In his last start, Kip Wells notched his first win since 2009: he was with the Reds that year and not another major league team in the meantime. The 35-year old has been bouncing around the minors since then, and though he wasn’t actually doing all that well with the Padres AAA-affiliate, he got the call.

It’s certainly true that 1.50 ERA is influenced by the very small sample size, but his last start was pretty remarkable, all things considered. He put in 7.0 innings of work, allowing 0 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks.

At first blush, it looks like the Reds ought to have an easy time of it tomorrow, but that’s what the Rockies thought, too, when they faced Wells in his last outing.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
Drew Stubb’s 0-for-28 non-hitting streak is the longest in his career.

July 5, 2012

Braving the heat: Bats 7, Indians 5

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W: J. J. Hoover (2-0) L: Kris Johnson (4-1) S: Donnie Joseph (4)

Boxscore

The RHM crew ventured out in the 100-degree heat to catch the Louisville Bats taking on the Indianapolis Indians at Victory Field.

The Indian’s specialty brew this year: Victory Lager by Sun King.

It was not a heat that was kind to the starters. Chad Reineke, for the Bats, allowed 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings. For the Indians, Daniel Cabrera topped that by giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks over 5 1/3.

The offensive stars who gave the Bats a rare win were Henry Rodriguez, who drove in 3 runs and had a home run, and Corky Miller, who went 3-4 and drove in 2. Former Red J. J. Hoover picked up the win.

Victory Field has had a beer unique to them for the past several seasons. Previously, it had been Victory Amber, which was made by Oaken Barrel, a brew pub located in the southern Indianapolis suburb of Greenwood, Indiana. It was not exactly an amber beer–closer to Killian’s than a traditional amber–but it was very drinkable at the ball park.

This year, downtown Indianapolis brewer Sun King has the job of making Victory Field’s signature brew, and they’ve made Victory Lager, which they describe as a Munich Helles. It’s a dark lager and heavier than you might expect, but the flavor was great. There are hints of hops without it being too much for those who don’t like the hops flavor. And it certainly hit the spot in the 98 degree heat.

I’ll definitely be having it again the next time I’m at Victory Field. And some day, I hope to see the Reds with a signature beer at Great American Ball Park.

Below are pictures from the night.