Last Game
The Reds didn’t really intend to make sure the Pirates had a losing record for the year, but that’s what happened yesterday when the Reds beat them 4-3. It was a tall order for the Pirates anyway, who needed to win-out starting on Saturday just to finish .500. It’s tough to make that transition to winning team when it’s been so long. They’ll do better next year.

Johnny Cueto was going for his 20th win of the season, but fell just short as the Reds didn’t take the lead until Sean Marshall’s watch. Still, 19 wins ain’t bad, and saving one for the postseason isn’t something I’m going to complain about.

Next Game
The Reds head to St. Louis for the last regular-season series of 2012. The Cardinals are still in active pursuit of their postseason berth, currently holding a 2-game lead for the second wildcard over the Dodgers. Amazing to think that if there were only one wildcard slot this year, the Cardinals would have already booked their flights home.

It’s a lot to ask of the Reds to sweep the Cardinals or even take the series. These two teams are at opposite ends of the motivation spectrum: one team having knotted up the division days ago and the other still fighting for its life. But if any team can get the Reds fired up in an otherwise meaningless series, it’s the Cardinals. Bronson Arroyo (RHP, 12-9, 3.70 ERA) will be taking his turn against Jaime Garcia (LHP, 6-7, 3.99 ERA). First pitch at 8:15 p.m.

The Return of Baker
Today is the big day: Dusty Baker finally returns to active managing of the Cincinnati Reds.

He’s missed the last 11 games after going to the hospital before a game in Chicago to be tested for pneumonia, discovering he had an irregular heartbeat, and then suffering a mini-stroke just as he was about to leave the hospital.

The stroke word is a pretty scary one, but apparently it’s not unexpected among people with Baker’s irregular heartbeat condition, so they knew to be on the lookout for it and got it treated right away. Fortunately he was still in the hospital, so they didn’t even have to wait for an ambulance.

The other thing that’s typical with this condition is water retention, which is apparently something they remedied during Baker’s hospital stay. I haven’t seen a single picture leak out yet, so I’ll have to be on the lookout during the actual game tomorrow to see the newly trimmed down manager.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
None of the divisions in the American League has yet been clinched. In the West, Texas holds a 2.0 game lead over Oakland. In the Central, Detroit leads Chicago by 3.0. And in the East, the Yankees and Orioles are still in a dead tie.

Last Game

Mat Latos turned in another excellent outing, allowing just 1 run over 7 innings. The bullpen, no doubt thoroughly shamed by the previous game’s suckitude, was lights-out, too.

Unfortunately, the Reds were again without offense and unable to score one measly run. Then Todd Frazier stepped up to the plate in the 9th inning with two outs and hit a solo shot to center field to tie the game. Jay Bruce followed with a single, and Dioner Navarro hit a walk-off triple to bring him in and win the last regular season game at Great American Ball Park.

Next Game
Cincinnati travels to Pittsburgh to start their final regular season road trip of the year. The Pirates–one of the sadder stories of the season–will be fighting to finish the year with their first winning record in a generation. The Reds will be fighting for home field advantage in the playoffs. It will be A. J. Burnett versus Homer Bailey at 7:05pm.

No surprises planned for post-season roster
With just 6 games left in the regular season, thoughts among Reds fans are turning towards who will be named to the roster for the first playoff series. The managerial staff is thinking about it, too.

Acting manager Chris Speier says don’t expect any shockers.

“A lot of it is you want to have the best roster you can,” Speier said. “But you take into consideration the contribution people have made throughout the year. I’m sure the final roster won’t have too many surprises.”

Speier met with manager Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty once to discuss the potential roster, and there isn’t much capability for surprises. Short of calling on Billy Hamilton–who hasn’t played a Major League game–Cincinnati is likely to go with those who got them where they are this year.

From the rotation, Mike Leake is the likeliest to be left off. Five starters aren’t needed in the playoffs, and the bullpen is packed with proven successful options.

For the position players, Wilson Valdez will probably make the team, as much as I might not like it. Didi Gregorius would be a better option, but that promise of no surprises removes him from the running. Devin Mesoraco, the catcher of the future, is not the catcher of the present, so he is unlikely to make it.

The final roster won’t be decided upon until after the final game with the St. Louis Cardinals.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The Reds’ season attendance total was 2,347,251. That puts them at second place in Great American Ball Park history. First place goes to 2003, when the park opened. That year, the team drew 2,355,259. Missed it by 8,008.

Last Game
The Brewers evened the series yesterday at 1 game apiece, beating the Reds 7-1. Bronson Arroyo turned in a crappy performance, allowing 4 of those 7 runs in his 6 innings. The bullpen brought gasoline to the fire with every reliever allowing runs, combining to let 4 more runs to score. The poor pitching was a disappointment after the Reds scored first in the bottom of the first thanks to a double from Joey Votto. But the offense managed no runs after that.

Next Game
The Reds will attempt to win the series today, sending Mat Latos out against Wily “Mo” Peralta. Latos had one of his best outings of the season in his last start, and has been competing with Johnny Cueto for being the best starter on the team since the All Star break. The game, which is the final regular season game at Great American Ball Park this year, starts at 12:35pm.

Cueto’s chance of winning elite award relies on advanced metrics
Cincinnati Enquirer beat reporter John Fay delved into statistics deeper than wins, losses, ERA, and strikeouts in an article about Johnny Cueto. With Cueto’s struggles to get his 18th win–it took him 4 tries–his case for the Cy Young award based on gaudy win totals fell apart. But Fay, who will be voting for the award this year, doesn’t think Cueto’s out of the running and compares him to R.A. Dickey, Kyle Lohse, and Gio Gonzalez.

I decided to take a look at home-road splits for those four. If you factor in the Park Factor, Cueto deserves strong consideration. Of the aforementioned contenders, he pitches in the most hitter-friendly park, Great American Ball Park — or as Homer Bailey calls it “a Little League park.”

GAPB yields the third most home runs in baseball and the ninth most runs. Nationals Park, where Gonzalez pitches, is 11th and 10th. Dickey’s home yard, Citi Field, is 13th and 25th. Lohse’s home park, Busch Stadium, is 20th and 18th.

It would be awesome to have Cueto pick up Cincinnati’s first Cy Young. As Fay points out, Cueto does lead in Wins above Replacement (WAR) as reported by ESPN.com and Baseball-Reference.com and is second on FanGraphs.com. It would be a surprise pick, though, given the resistance to modern stats by so many of the other voters.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The Reds have 4 pitchers–Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and Mat Latos–with at least 30 starts each and a 5th–Mike Leake–scheduled to make his 30th on Saturday at Pittsburgh. Only 7 staffs in Major League history produced 5 pitchers with at least 30 starts each: 1977 Dodgers, 1980 A’s, 1993 Dodgers, 2003 Mariners, 2005 Cardinals, 2005 Indians and 2006 White Sox.

Last Game
After their day off on Monday, the Reds won the series opener with the Brewers, 4-2, last night. It got Johnny Cueto his 19th win of the season (so 20 is still a possibility) and got Aroldis Chapman his 36th save (his first since he’s been back from that arm weakness). Dioner Navarro went 2-for-3 with 2 RBI.

Next Game
The series continues tonight at 7:10 p.m. Bronson Arroyo (RHP, 12-8, 3.63 ERA) takes on Shaun Marcum (RHP, 5-4, 3.86 ERA). Marcum has done well since returning from the DL, but Arroyo has been on-freaking-fire for the last month plus. He’s allowed only 1 run over 8 innings his last time out, against the Dodgers on Friday.

Get Well Soon, Dusty
The tight-lip-ness of the Reds about the condition of manager Dusty Baker seemed to indicate there was something big they weren’t telling us, and that did turn out to be the case. As he was being discharged from the hospital in Chicago, he suffered a minor stroke and was treated on the spot.

Baker had been admitted to the hospital for an irregular heartbeat, and apparently small strokes aren’t uncommon in people who have that condition, so the folks at the hospital knew to be on the lookout for it and responded promptly. He’s expected to make a full recovery and may even be back to managing the team when they play the last regular season series in St. Louis.

Interestingly, another thing that’s typical for people with Baker’s condition is for them to retain water. The treatment apparently caused him to lose a bunch of water weight because all the guys who are being quoted in the stories are saying how good he looks. He hasn’t met with the media since he’s been in the hospital, so it’ll be quite the unveiling of a slender Baker come the St. Louis series.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The last time the Reds had a 20-game winning pitcher was 24 years ago (1988) when Danny Jackson won 23 games. Johnny Cueto was 2 years old when that happened.

Last Game
The Reds took last night off, so they should be all rested and ready for action tonight. I’m sure we won’t see any big stars on the bench, right?

Next Game
The Reds open a three-game series with the Brewers tonight at Great American Ball Park. Johnny Cueto (RHP, 18-9, 2.84 ERA) takes on Mike Fiers (RHP, 9-8, 3.38 ERA). First pitch at 7:10 p.m.

Cueto had been having a rough time of it for a while there, but he was looking pretty good in his last start against the Cubs. If he can win his remaining 2 starts, he still has a chance of getting to 20 wins for the season.

If you were worried about Baker’s win-loss record, you can rest easy
John Fay says that the last five games that Dusty Baker has missed will still be attributed to his win-loss record.

Baker went to the hospital while the team was in Chicago, thinking maybe he had pneumonia. He didn’t, but did end up admitted and stuck there for the next several days after the doctors noticed an irregular heart beat. He finally came back to Cincinnati last weekend, but there’s still not official word on whether he’ll be back to his managing duties today.

The organization has said very little, he hasn’t been available for interviews, and even his visit to the clubhouse was just long enough to get a hug and a “howyadoin’?” from each guy before he was back home resting. It’s kind of ominous, actually. I hope everything’s OK.

With no one talking, though, there’s not much for us to do but think about things like the career of bench coach Chris Speier, who’s been filling in. Speier, though, isn’t the one who get ultimate credit for these games; they still count toward Baker’s record. Even games during which the manager is serving a suspension do, which is funny, since a pitcher who missed a start while serving a suspension wouldn’t get credit for it. They must think that the manager of record casts a long shadow over the clubhouse, even when he’s not there. And, I suppose, Baker probably does.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The 2012 Reds are only the 15th team in Major League history to have at least 6 pitchers with at least 100 strikeouts apiece. If you’re wondering who the 6 guys are, they are the starting rotation and Aroldis Chapman. Yes, even Mike Leake is rocking over 100 Ks.

Sean Marshall is the next closest pitcher on the Reds roster right now. He has 73.