Blog Archives

July 27, 2012

Reds-Rockies series preview

Last Game
The Reds had yesterday off, giving fans everywhere a chance to catch up on their DVR’d TV. That Chef Ramsay sure is a hardass, isn’t he?

Next Game
Tonight the Reds face the Colorado Rockies. Bronson Arroyo (RHP, 5-6, 3.98 ERA) takes on Drew Pomeranz (LHP, 1-5, 4.98 ERA).

Series Preview
The Reds are on a 7-game winning streak and leading the NLC. We know the pitching is great and that the offense has been finding a new hero every night, but that winning streak also has a lot to do with the teams the Reds have been playing since the All-Star break.

The Rockies are the next in the parade of underperforming opponents. With their 37-60 record, the Rockies are 17.5 games back in the NLW. Arroyo goes tonight, then Johnny Cueto tomorrow, and Mat Latos Sunday. Tonight may be the Rockies’ best chance to strike, though Latos can be touch-and-go sometimes. Plus he rolled his ankle the last time out, which he says is fine now, but these things can creep up on you.

Meanwhile, the NLC’s second place team, the Pirates, has faced the Brewers, the Rockies, the Marlins, the Cubs, and now the Astros, which are also all sub-.500 teams. With just a 2.0 game lead, the Reds really have to keep the wins coming in order to continue to fend off the Buccos. After the Rockies, the Reds host a four-game series with the Padres, and then the Pirates come to town.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
We’re about halfway through the time Joey Votto is expected to be out recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery. The Reds have gone 8-2 since he’s been gone.

July 26, 2012

Reds win 4-error game

Last Game
Homer Bailey put in another excellent performance, but was denied his tenth win of the season by a blown save at the hands of Logan Ondrusek. Despite some questionable defense (the Reds had 4 errors in this game), they did come back to win the game and sweep the series at the last possible moment. Final score: 5-3.

Next Game
The Reds have an off-day today. They’re currently doing something relaxing in Denver, acclimating to the climate and waiting to beat up on the Rockies tomorrow.

The Bad New Bears Got Lucky
If you’ve watched very young little leaguers, you know that baseball is a very different game for them. Not only are their “tools” not really developed yet, they might not even realize that the ball is in their general vicinity because they’re looking at airplanes flying overhead or at ladybugs in the grass or something.

On the other hand, if you’ve watched the oldest little leaguers, you know that they can make some really competent plays. They know what to do and they have the practice to execute on that knowledge.

In between, there is a phase of the mind knowing something needs to happen urgently, but it may be a surprise to everyone, including the player, what the body actually does. For just a moment in the eighth inning yesterday, the Reds were that little league team.

In the eighth, with a man on third and 2 outs, Scott Moore doubled to right to put the Astros on the board. Then Ondrusek sent up a wild pitch. Then J. D. Martinez hit a double to left and Ryan Ludwick launched the ball someplace he didn’t intend it to go, then Todd Frazier did the same thing. In the blink of an eye, they went from leading 2-0 to losing 2-3.

I thought there was no way they could come back at that late stage, but I’d failed to consider the year that Fransisco Cordero is having. I don’t know what caused the Reds to channel a little league team full of 7-and-a-half-year olds for a minute there, but they got lucky. For the second night in a row, Cordero blew the save. Poor CoCo: that’s got to suck. But yay Reds!

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The Reds’ current 7-game winning streak is their longest winning streak all season. They are a season-high 18 games over .500, and have gone 8-2 since Joey Votto left the roster for arthroscopic knee surgery.

July 25, 2012

Rodriguez still battles Reds, but from PIT

Last Game
The Astros struck first with a 2-run home run in the fourth inning. The Reds did put a run on the board but they were still trailing going into the ninth. It wasn’t looking good until Drew Stubbs came up with a man on and knocked the ball outta there. There’s always someone being the hero, isn’t there? The Reds ended up beating the Astros in the second game of the series, 4-2

Next Game
The Reds go for the 3-game sweep tonight at 8:05 p.m. Homer Bailey (RHP, 9-6, 3.74 ERA) takes on Bud Norris (RHP, 5-8, 5.33 ERA). Bailey has been on fire lately, while Norris has been walking people.

It’s Not Goodbye; It’s See You Later
During the game last night, the Astros announced that they had traded Wandy Rodriguez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for left-handed pitcher Rudy Owens, outfielder Robbie Grossman (a particularly valuable piece to give away), and left-handed pitcher Colton Cain. Houston is helping out with Rodriguez’s $13M salary.

It’s sort of a strange move, since the Pirates starters have been pretty solid lately. But Kevin Correia and Jeff Karstens have relief experience and could offer a little insurance against injury and fatigue. Plus, there aren’t that many good bats available right now.

Rodriguez’s next start is scheduled for Saturday when the Pirates will be in Houston playing the Astros. That ought to be dramatic. Meaning, the emotions will be dramatic; the game’s more likely to be a blow-out. Five days after that is the Pirates’ off-day before starting the series in Cincinnati.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
The Reds are 6-2 since July 16 when Joey Votto left the line-up for arthroscopic knee surgery. At this rate, he’ll have to earn his job back.

July 24, 2012

Reds contending for Rookie of the Year

Last Game
The Astros are in a bad way. They were already the worst team in the game, or among them anyway, even before they traded away many of their best players. I know they’re in rebuilding mode and reinventing themselves for the move to the AL next season, but in my imagination they were saying “save yourselves!” to those guys. They’re now 1-9 in their last 10.

So it’s probably no surprise that the first place Reds put the hurt on them last night and ended up winning 8-3. Mat Latos even twisted his ankle in the fifth but they let him stick it out to qualify for the win. I mean, what was going to happen?

Next Game
The Reds continue against the Astros tonight. I’m afraid the ‘Stros are going to be due sooner or later, but even regressing to their norm only means winning 35% of the games. Mike Leake (RHP, 3-6, 4.25 ERA) takes on Lucas Harrell (RHP, 7-7, 4.24 ERA).

Frazier for Rookie of the Year
I wanted to take a look at Todd Frazier’s Rookie of the Year chances. His offensive numbers are extremely favorable compared to last year’s NL ROY, but last year’s ROY was a relief pitcher without a single at-bat. He’s infinitely better at the plate than that.

Last year’s second place vote-getter, though, was Freddie Freeman of the Braves, who played first base. Numbers in italics are projected out to a 162-game season:

Guy Team Line HRs RBI Runs WAR Notes
Todd Frazier CIN .285/.347/.542 17 HR 56 RBI 46 R 1.6 WAR No one’s mentioning his name except Reds fans on Twitter, but Frazier’s putting together a good case for himself.
2011 Freddie Freeman ATL .282/.346/.448 21 HR 76 RBI 67 R 1.1 WAR Last year’s second-place vote getter for the ROY is putting together a good season now, but these are numbers from last year.
Bryce Harper WSN .272/.343/.449 15 HR 49 RBI 84 R 1.8 WAR Of course, the hype this year all goes to Bryce Harper, who is having a pretty darn good year for a 19-year old.
Zack Cozart CIN .245/.292/.399 17 HR 34 RBI 84 R 1.6 WAR It’s nice that Cozart has made the “what are we going to do about short?” question moot.

The fact that Harper is 7 years younger and has been a highlight of the Nationals’ marketing efforts will be to his advantage. It’s a whole lot easier to remember Harper than the guy Dusty Baker couldn’t consistently find playing time for until Joey Votto got hurt.

Cozart’s numbers don’t look as strong, but he’s a shortstop, so his defense ought to weigh in a little more. His name is consistently in ROY discussions, which is certainly helped by the fact that he’s on pace for about 660 PAs. Frazier, on the other hand, is only on pace for about 400.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
Gary Busey’s character in the movie Rookie of the Year was nicknamed Rocket and based on Roger Clemens.

July 23, 2012

Everything coming up roses for Reds fans

Last Game
The Reds completed a sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday afternoon when they won 2-1. The Reds are 8-2 since the All-Star break, having swept both division rivals they’ve played since then.

Next Game
Tonight the Reds head to Houston to take on the Astros. On Friday, the Astros traded RHP Brandon Lyon, LHP J.A. Happ, and RHP David Carpenter to the Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Francisco Cordero and OF Ben Francisco, four minor leaguers, and a PTBNL. They did not, however, trade away Wandy Rodriguez (LHP, 7-8, 3.75 ERA), who is facing off against Mat Latos (RHP, 7-3, 4.33 ERA) tonight. First pitch at 8:05 p.m.

A Great Weekend to be a Reds Fan
Cincinnati fans couldn’t ask for too much more than they got this weekend. While Barry Larkin was giving his entertaining, if somewhat lengthy, Hall of Fame induction speech, the Reds were busy getting themselves a season-high 15 games over .500. Plus Joey Votto is off his crutches and is that much closer to coming back.

What to Say to Sound Smart at the Water Cooler
Nobody on either team hit a home run in yesterday’s game. It’s the first time GABP has failed to yield a homer to either team since July 29, 2011 when the Giants were in town. That’s 74 games in a row with a home run.