Blog Archives

July 7, 2012

Can the Reds avoid another Willy Taveras situation?

The news from the Twitters yesterday centered around a message from ESPN’s Buster Olney saying that the Cincinnati Reds were looking at Philadelphia Phillies’ outfielder Juan Pierre.

As the Phillies prepare for possible sell-off, Juan Pierre drawing interest, including from the Cincinnati Reds.

Pierre is a 35-year-old left-fielder who many may recognize as the super-fast guy who used to lead-off and patrol center field for the Florida Marlins a decade ago. He was a guy who relied on his speed to be successful, and as he’s aged, his productivity has declined with his speed.

I’m happy to hear that the Reds are exploring the market. So often it seems like General Manager is asleep at the wheel even when it’s clear the team has gaping holes. The biggest problems with the 2012 club are ones that were identified and left un-addressed in the off-season: lead-off, left field, and the bench.

Presumably, Pierre would serve to improve the lead-off and left-field problem. However, after checking out Pierre’s stats and reading Redleg Nation’s review of Pierre, I think the better move would be doing nothing at all.

Pierre is a singles hitter who doesn’t walk much. His on-base percentage is almost directly tied to his batting average.

Pierre’s plate discipline is showing tell-tale signs of decline. His O-Swing rate (percentage of times the batter swings at a pitch outside the strike zone) has shot up from 27.6% last year to 33.9% this year. Over 30% O-Swing you’re usually looking at power hitters, like Phillips, Frazier, Ludwick etc. (JoeyMVP has a team-low 22% O-Swing). But with Pierre, you get zero power from his lack of discipline.

Keep in mind the importance of walking to OBP. Players go through slumps in batting average all the time. If their walk-rate is an important part of their OBP, then their offensive contribution doesn’t suffer as much. But if their OBP is made up to a large degree by their AVG, as it is with players like Pierre (and Heisey, and Phillips and Cozart and …) then the offense suffers from inconsistency. Really, the very last thing the erratic Reds offense needs right now is another hitter who doesn’t walk.

That last sentence is what really makes me the most scared about the Reds having Pierre. He’s hitting better than he has in a while right now, which means he’s likely to enter into a slump at some point. Without the ability to walk and get on base during a slump, he’ll just be another automatic out in the Reds’ lineup. In short, he’d be another Willy Taveras and no better than Drew Stubbs.

There are better upgrade options out there, depending on how much the club is willing to give up. If it were me, I’d certainly be exploring those, but Pierre would be one of the last guys I considered.

I think the best plan now is to shuffle the lineup. Move Brandon Phillips back to the lead-off position. Have Ryan Hanigan bat second. Move Todd Frazier to clean-up, and drop Stubbs and Zach Cozart down a few spots. As far as long-term plans for lead-off and center field, right now it feels like Billy Hamilton–he of the .413 on-base percentage and 104 steals in high A-ball–is likely the guy. Unfortunately, he’s unlikely to be ready until next year, at the earliest.

Until then, the best move might be no move at all. Which I would take over another Willy Taveras.

July 5, 2012

Braving the heat: Bats 7, Indians 5

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W: J. J. Hoover (2-0) L: Kris Johnson (4-1) S: Donnie Joseph (4)

Boxscore

The RHM crew ventured out in the 100-degree heat to catch the Louisville Bats taking on the Indianapolis Indians at Victory Field.

The Indian’s specialty brew this year: Victory Lager by Sun King.

It was not a heat that was kind to the starters. Chad Reineke, for the Bats, allowed 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings. For the Indians, Daniel Cabrera topped that by giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks over 5 1/3.

The offensive stars who gave the Bats a rare win were Henry Rodriguez, who drove in 3 runs and had a home run, and Corky Miller, who went 3-4 and drove in 2. Former Red J. J. Hoover picked up the win.

Victory Field has had a beer unique to them for the past several seasons. Previously, it had been Victory Amber, which was made by Oaken Barrel, a brew pub located in the southern Indianapolis suburb of Greenwood, Indiana. It was not exactly an amber beer–closer to Killian’s than a traditional amber–but it was very drinkable at the ball park.

This year, downtown Indianapolis brewer Sun King has the job of making Victory Field’s signature brew, and they’ve made Victory Lager, which they describe as a Munich Helles. It’s a dark lager and heavier than you might expect, but the flavor was great. There are hints of hops without it being too much for those who don’t like the hops flavor. And it certainly hit the spot in the 98 degree heat.

I’ll definitely be having it again the next time I’m at Victory Field. And some day, I hope to see the Reds with a signature beer at Great American Ball Park.

Below are pictures from the night.

July 2, 2012

Cueto-gate 2012: LaRussa is a lawyer

Following up yesterday’s post about the snub by Tony LaRussa of Johnny Cueto and Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Enquirer reporter John Fay wrote about a new rule in the most recent collective bargaining agreement called the “Sunday Pitcher Rule.”

(ii) Sunday Pitcher Rule. Any starting pitcher elected or selected to the All-Star team who makes a start on the Sunday immediately preceding the All-Star Game (“Sunday Pitcher”) shall have the option to participate or not participate in the All-Star Game. If such starting pitcher elects to participate in the All-Star Game, he will not be permitted to pitch for more than one inning, and he may also inform his manager that he should be removed from the game if he reaches a certain pitch count (irrespective of whether he has completed one inning), provided such pitch count is reasonable. If a Sunday Pitcher who was originally named to the team elects not to participate in the All-Star Game, he will be replaced on the roster but treated in the same manner as other All-Stars who are excused from participation, and he will be encouraged to attend and be announced at the All-Star Game.

Basically, this means that no pitcher should be skipped when being picked for the All Star game because he happens to start the Sunday before the break. In that case, it’s up to the player, not the manager picking the roster.

In case you don’t remember, Tony LaRussa, the guy who got to pick the players to the game after the fans, players, and coaches, had this to say about why he didn’t pick Cueto.

“If Dusty (Baker) had been more interested in Cueto being on the team, then he wouldn’t be pitching him on Sunday. Cueto probably would be on the team if he wasn’t pitching Sunday.”

Sounds like LaRussa broke the rule, right? I mean, he himself said that if Cueto weren’t starting on Sunday, he’d have been picked. Cueto’s agent has charged as much, but Major League Baseball is apparently supporting LaRussa.

Major League Baseball senior vice president Katy Feeney said that the fact that Cueto was scheduled to pitch on Sunday actually was well down the list of considerations….Feeney said that pitching on Sunday “maybe was the final consideration,” for a pitcher not to be included on the club. “That’s just one of the reasons,” Feeney said.

That’s not the most spirited defense. It strikes me as trying to say two opposite things at once. MLB is basically admitting that starting on Sunday was a consideration while also attempting to claim that they didn’t break the Sunday Pitcher Rule. I don’t think you can claim both.

Of course, LaRussa has a final quote in the article about the matter.

“I know the rule,” said La Russa, tersely.

Now why does that remind me so much of Tracy Morgan’s old impression of Star Jones on SNL?

July 1, 2012

Joey Votto has a bum knee

In the middle of Saturday’s game against the San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto left the game after jogging out a grounder. Apparently, he’s suffering from inflammation in his left knee that he suffered when sliding into third base on Friday night.

“Today I tried to play through it,” he said. “It started acting up. There is some inflammation in my knee.”

Votto is not in the lineup for today’s game against the Giants, but Votto wasn’t concerned about the inury.

“I don’t see why this should linger. There’s nothing structural. It happens sliding sometimes, then today — with the short turnaround — it lingered. I think I’ll be fine.”

In Votto’s place will be Miguel Cairo. Todd Frazier, the team’s third best hitter this year, would be a better choice, but it’s not one I can see manager Dusty Baker make. Hopefully, Votto will be out only a couple games.

July 1, 2012

Snub of Cueto, Phillips angers Dusty Baker

Cueto signing during Opening Night 2012.

It’s been long known that Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker has no love lost for former St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa. With today’s announcement of the 2012 All Star roster, the Reds and Dusty are angry again.

Johnny Cueto and Brandon Phillips were not selected for the team, leaving many to believe it’s leftover bad feelings from the 2010 Cardinals-Reds brawl. Both Cueto and Phillips were primary players involved, and LaRussa, who gets to pick players thanks to winning the National League pennant last year, picked neither.

“I’m happy for the guys who made it big time, especially for Chapman,” Baker said. “You figured that Joey would make it. We knew Jay had an outside chance. You also figured that Johnny Cueto and Brandon Phillips had a great chance. I don’t understand that one.

“A snub like that looks bad. Johnny and Brandon were at the center of skirmish between us and the Cardinals. Some of Cardinals who aren’t there anymore are making some of the selections.”

Baker knew the media would play up his comments.

“Maybe they should,” he said.

I think Phillips was screaming in unison with every Reds fanCueto is 5th in the league in ERA, 2.26, and leads the league over the last two years. Phillips is batting .288 with 10 home runs and has a lengthy highlight reel.

It wasn’t only Baker who was upset. Votto, who was voted in for the first time, wasn’t happy either.

“It’s kind of difficult to be overly happy today, considering the two guys I thought were shoo-ins aren’t going to be on the team,” he said. “That’s frustrating. I knew I was going to be an All-Star. I was hoping those two guys, the five of us, would go to Kansas City. As much as I don’t want to get into pissing contest right now, as happy as I am for myself and Jay, I’m disappointed for the two guys who are very, very meaningful to this first-place ballclub.”

Phillips hasn’t commented, so far, but Cueto didn’t mince words, throwing in a nice insult to LaRussa.

“I thought the way I pitched this year, I’d have a chance to go to the All-Star Game. I don’t know what happened. I don’t if know the manager of All-Star Game is pissed at me because I went out with one of his girlfriends.”

I’m surprised Cueto didn’t make fun of LaRussa for his DUI, but I like the insult.

Before the roster was announced, most people were wondering if Cueto would start the game–he can’t because of when his spot in the rotation falls–but to not be included is quite a surprise.

Tony LaRussa has retired from managing the Cardinals, but he’s clearly not retired from being a jackass.