When I was doing what passes for research around here for a post a couple days ago, I noted that the Reds’ winning percentage has been getting worse, but that it was still better than the winning percentage of the first place teams of two of the divisions. Factoids like that make it kind of hard to keep perspective, so I got curious to see how the progression of the Reds’ record looked over the course of the season.

There’s a definite downward trend since May 28, but it actually wasn’t as dramatic an image as I expected. Lucky for the Reds, it takes a long time to completely undo the kind of good they did through most of May. There may still be hope for this season. Even so, I think we’re all looking forward to a relaxing All-Star Break where the Reds can’t do any more harm than they’ve already done.

UPDATE: 4:30 p.m. Just saw that the Reds disabled Ryan Hanigan (sprained left wrist), retroactive to yesterday, and promoted Corky Miller (#37). Long live the ‘stache!

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Ryan Hanigan is suffering from a sore left wrist that was so bad the other day that he couldn’t close his hand. It’s a little hard to catch a pitch without that particular skill.

Meanwhile, Devin Mesoraco is suffering from back spasms that are bad enough that he’s obviously cringing on the field. He wasn’t exactly great at throwing runners out anyway; try stopping the running game with your back locking up.

Ironically, the team that never used to think twice about wasting a roster spot on a third catcher, even when the first two were in fine shape, is reluctant to bring in a third catcher now, when one is clearly needed. I don’t even know who the emergency catcher is, and that emergency seems like a real possibility about now.

I hope it’s Joey Votto, because I think that would be amazing to see. Votto was a catcher earlier in his career, so he probably still has the skills in there somewhere. That would be a pretty damn expensive backstop, though, especially if he got hurt, as everyone is apparently doing these days.

Much more realistic is for the team to bring Corky Miller back onto the scene. The 37-year old with the signature facial hair has bailed the Reds out more than once. The only trouble is, he’s not on the 40-man roster.

So to make room, the Reds would either have to put someone on the 60-day DL (Devin and Hani are in pain, but it’s not 2-months off kind of pain) or take someone else off the 40-man roster. There are probably some guys on this list who have options, especially one of the pitchers. Pitchers currently take up 22 of the spots; the team could probably spare one, especially considering the great work Miller has done in relief for the Bats.

On the other hand, it’s been the offense, not the defense, that’s been letting the team down lately, and Corky doesn’t add much of that. Besides, that lengthy list of pitching prospects on the 40-man may need to stay there to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.

So, it’s probably the case that our two current catchers are just going to have to gut it out in the short term. It’s still nice to put up a picture of the ‘stache, though.

Two outs in the top of the sixth inning, Reds down 0-2 to the Brewers: Joey Votto takes the first pitch for a ball and sends the second pitch into center field where it is caught by Carlos Gomez.

“I guess the Reds are losing the series to the Brewers,” I say.
“No, they’re getting swept,” replies my husband.

Now, we won’t know whether the Reds actually get swept by the worst team in the NLC for another seven hours or so, but this conversation is indicative of what it feels like to be a Reds fan right now. It just feels hopeless.

It’s a strange way to feel. The Reds are still 10 games over .500. Their 50-40 record would still give them first place in the NLW and the ALC. They’ve just gotten two infielders elected starters in the All-Star games. And yet.

One reason that Reds fandom feels so bad is that, while the overall team record is still in the positive, that is mostly thanks to an outrageously good month of May. Lately the win-loss record has been heavily tipped toward the loss side. Since June 15 the team has gone just 9-13 (.409).

That kind of record over the whole season would lead to 66 wins. It’s not as bad as the Marlins, but the team we Reds fans have been watching for the last month has been a pretty stark contrast to the 18-8 (.692) team we saw in May.

Another reason that failing now feels so bad is because it’s been failure at the hands of bad teams. Before losing this series to the Brewers (37-52), they lost one to the Mariners (40-50). But losing to bad teams doesn’t entirely capture it. After all, it didn’t feel any better to lose to the Texans (53-37), Diamondbacks (47-43), or Pirates (53-36). Even beating up on the Giants (40-49) felt like it was the least they could do.

But I think the biggest reason that it feels like we’re watching a terrible team right now is because we’ve anticipated so much from the beginning. These are the defending division champs, with a highly talented, dedicated, and durable roster players in the prime of their careers. Against all odds, their manager has stopped hating walks and the Cardinals have lost all but one or two of the guys who having standing deals with the devil. This ought to be our year.

And it still could be, I guess, but it’s going to take a change in momentum. Taking one from the Brewers this afternoon wouldn’t be a bad start.

When Homer Bailey threw his last no hitter (last Tuesday), the Reds were 7-3 in their last 10. Today, they’re 5-5. It doesn’t sound like much of a jump-start, but maybe it’ll just take a second in a row to really get the team going.

Already, Bailey is the owner of the two most-recent no-hitters in baseball: last Tuesday and September 28 of last year. It got him half of the Player of the Week award (shared with Braves catcher Brian McCann, who got a lot of hits or something). All he has to do is throw another one tonight and he can join the likes of Johnny Vander Meer who was the last one to throw back-to-back no-hitters–only 75 years ago.

Bailey will be taking on the Brewers tonight at 8:10 pm ET at Miller Park. The Brewers are in a sore state: 35-52 and dead last in the NLC. But it’s Kyle Lohse (RHP, 4-6, 3.43 ERA) going for the Brewers, the former Red that they signed when they were overly optimistic about how this season was going to turn out. Lohse is a pretty tough cookie, and if the Reds’ recent performance against Aaron Harang is any indication, facing former teammates doesn’t lead to good offense for the good guys.

As the guys on the radio are so fond of saying, these are the games that the Reds simply need to win. A no-hitter doesn’t guarantee that, I guess, but if the offense can’t get it together then, they never can.

Last night’s game was rained out, but most people didn’t this view. Manny Parra posted this picture on Twitter:

I don't understand why the game was called. Wow pic.twitter.com/oUQxh61JeZ

— Manny Parra (@MannyParra26) July 2, 2013

It’s looking better today, as we can see in these photos that @ctrent tweeted:

what a difference 14 hours make #reds #sfgiants pic.twitter.com/bFtDg2Ntao

— ctrent (@ctrent) July 2, 2013

There’s a 60% chance of rain during the hours the game would be played tonight. If this happens again, they should just switch to water polo instead.