Seems like everyone is expecting some big announcement. Nary a move at the winter meetings unless you consider the announcement of bringing back Weathers to be exciting news. People seem to think Krivsky is stumped or that we are trying to save extra cash. I disagree with both of those assessments. In my opinion, Krivsky has already built his team and is just fleshing it out with some bit players.

Consider this:

Since taking over GM duties last Spring the Reds now have a new catcher, a new 1st baseman, a new second baseman, a new shortstop, a new 3rd baseman (Encarnacion won the job last Spring), a new right fielder (Freel or Denorfia, or somebody else). That's 7 out of 9 position players changing since Krivsky took over. Only Dunn and Griffey, the two big boppers remain locked, and that is because Griffey is virtually untradeable and possesses a veto, and Dunn was re-signed by Krivsky, so in a way that is his guy as well.

Let's move on to the starting pitching. Harang was the ace when Wayne arrived, so fortunately he remains, and Milton, like Griffey, is pretty much impossible to trade because of his contract, but aside from those two Krivsky added Arroyo and Lohse and the 5th starter is up in the air and could wind up being one of his guys as well. We know it won't be Claussen.

As for the relief staff, that was completely overhauled last season. Majewski, Bray, Cormier were acquired, and now add Stanton to that list. Only Weathers and Coffey survived the changes.

So folks, what we have is a new team, Krivsky's team and that is why you shouldn't expect radical changes at this juncture. He did most of the work last season. I expect nothing more than another 1st baseman that bats right-handed to platoon with Hatteberg. The number 5 pitcher will probably go to Elizardo Ramirez or maybe this guy Livingston. I don't think an established closer is going to be brought in for big bucks because 1) I don't think we have big bucks remaining when you consider Harang and Ross are both going to arbitration and 2) Weathers and Stanton both did some closing last year and are probably going to serve as a bridge to the closer of the future which is either going to be Bray or Coffey.

So this is the hand Krivsky is playing. The only thing that could happen that would be radical, would be if he decided to trade Dunn, but I think he thinks he can get his stock higher than what it currently is after a very disappointing season. If he gets off to a hot start you probably have a lot better offers. Or, you ride it out and hope he gets you to the post season with a break out season (reduced strikeouts and improved clutch hitting).

The other big offensive change looming on the horizon will of course be Griffey departing to the Happy Hunting Grounds. He will either retire, be brought back cheaply as a pinch hitter, or smaybe try his hand at DH in the AL. he won't be patrolling CF in 2007, which is why they won't bother re-training him at a new position, because he is not going to be around much longer. I think they figure he is good for 80-110 games give or take.

I do believe Craig Wilson is the target acquisition remaining in Krivsky's sights because he can play both RF and 1B and has the pre-requisite right-handed bat. Plus he has power, which will be in short supply when Griffey goes down.

No one expects Milton to return after this season, but I don't look for major changes in the rotation because eventually Homer Bailey is coming up, and any money saved on Milton will need to go to Harang and possibly Arroyo if they can convince him to stick around for the right price (maybe Milton's salary).

So there you have it. The reason nothing is happening, is because it already happened. Weren't you paying attention?

Reliever David Weathers and the Reds have agreed to a (reportedly) two-year, $5 million contract, pending a physical he was supposed to have taken today.

As we all know, the Reds recently signed Alex Gonzalez to a free agent deal, reportedly $14 million for three years. The move essentially means Gonzalez replaces Felipe Lopez as the Reds' regular shortstop.

This deal has been slammed pretty hard in some circles. The people who are upset with this, though, all seem to think guys like Barry Larkin, or for that matter Alex Rodriguez, grow on trees.

I look at it this way: For a little less than $5 million a year, the Reds have a guy who committed just 7 errors in 111 games at short last year. That's important when you play in a launching pad like GABP, where every guy who reaches base because of a Cinci error could end up being an extra run scored by the other team when a ball that would have been caught for an out in another city flies into the seats at GABP.

The Reds not only got the youngest free agent shortstop on the market (Gonzo is 29), they got a guy who fills a real need at the most important defensive position on the team with the possible exception of catcher. One of the Red Sox bloggers wrote that “Gonzalez was the best defensive shortstop I've ever seen play in a Red Sox uniform and it was a treat to see him play everyday. At least once a game he'd do something that seemed impossible.” Consider that in light of the fact that in recent years the BoSox have run Nomar Garciaparra, Pokey Reese, and Orlando Cabrera out there.

Another Boston blogger wrote, “You can quote all the defensive statistics you want to. The truth is, I watched every game this guy played last year and he is by far the best in baseball at shortstop…if the ball was anywhere to the left side of the infield it was an out…the DPs you will see him make will make you forget the contract.”

Oh, yeah, the contract: Look at what teams are signing players for this year. $5 Million this year is $3 million last year. If Gonzalez is even among the top five defensive shortstops in the game, that's a bargain in GABP where you try to get pitchers to induce grounders, and need to have guys who can actually catch those grounders to make the pitchers more effective. For the Red Sox, maybe his glove didn't offset his poor hitting, but this isn't Boston, it's Cinci. Shortstop isn't as much of an offensive-minded position in the NL as it is in the AL. He's certain to be an improvement over Lopez and Clayton.

Bottom line here: The Reds were not about to go win the World Series the way they were. They may have a light-hitting shortstop, but does anyone need to be reminded that the Cardinals just won the World Series with a light-hitting shortstop? And the Marlins won the World Series in 2003 running the guy Kriv-Dawg just signed out there as their everyday shortstop. He hit .256 with 18 homers in 2003 - numbers that aren't at all out of reach for him in 2007 playing his home games at GABP).

So, my take on the deal is that this makes two pretty good additions to the Reds that Krivsky's stolen from the Red Sox. He better cut that out, or Theo's not going to send him a Christmas card.

HMZ

By my calculations, this is what we're looking at right now.

C Valentin
C Ross

1B Hatteberg
2B Phillips
3B Encarnacion
SS Gonzalez
SS/3B Castro

LF Dunn
CF Griffey
OF Denorfia
OF Freel

I think most are in agreement that as we stand right now, all of those players are locks for the opening day roster. Assuming we go with the typical 13 hitter/12 pitcher roster, that leaves us with two spots to fill offensively. Possible suitors for those two spots within the organization:

IF Olmedo
IF Harris
OF Crosby
OF Hopper

Perhaps some of you may see it differently, but with what we already have on the bench, none of those options look very appetizing. I saw it mentioned elsewhere on the site, but I really do think pursuit of Craig Wilson is almost something that is necessary. Hatteberg needs a platoon mate and the bench needs some power, and having a guy with versatility is also nice. Add Wilson and any of the above four players (probably Olmedo or Harris), throw in competent managing (wishful thinking, probably), and I think we'd have a fairly strong lineup that looked something like this.

vs. RHP

RF Freel/Denorfia (I'd like to see Freel playing about 2/3s of the games in RF)
1B Hatteberg
CF Griffey
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
C Valentin (Catcher should be a strict platoon)
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez

vs. LHP

RF Freel/Denorfia
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
CF Griffey
1B Wilson
C Ross
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez

Honestly, if Dunn and Griffey hit well next year (we'll say Dunn at .900 OPS, and something like .930 vs. RHP and .850 against LHP and Griffey at .850 OPS with .900 vs. RHP and .770 vs. LHP, that would have the ability to be a top-five offense. The Javy/Ross platoon and Hatteberg/Wilson platoons would both be very productive and would leave us with a ton of power on the bench vs. RHP, which always comes in handy. Hopefully Phillips shows some progress from last year and Gonzalez should at least provide solid power despite being basically useless in every other way offensively. With the offense settled, let's move on to the pitching staff.

SP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Milton
SP Lohse (not terribly exciting, but he's a cheaper and probably better option than the ridiculous market right now)
SP ???

RP Majewski
RP Bray
RP Stanton
RP Cormier
RP Coffey

That leaves us three spots to play with on the pitching staff, one starter, one guy capable of either middle or long relief, and hopefully a guy capable of closing.

Organizational candidates:

SP Brandon Claussen
SP Elizardo Ramirez
SP/RP Matt Belisle
RP Brian Shackelford
RP Jon Coutlangus
RP David Shafer
RP Calvin Medlock

It is my personal opinion that Rheal Cormier will be off the team by June, but until then, I doubt Love Shack gets the LOOGY spot that he has earned (.82 ERA vs. LHB last year, 20.25 against RHP -- another interesting split I found is his 17.47 ERA at home vs. just 1.69 on the road. Small sample sizes, but still interesting.) The last three guys on the list are big longshots for the opening day roster, though we'll probably see all three at some point during the year. I'll guess that Claussen wins the last rotation spot in spring training and Belisle fills the long-relief/spot-starter role, with Elizardo ready to be called to the majors when he's inevitably needed. Signing a FA starter is possible, but with the market as it is, we'd end up paying more than we did for Milton for a guy who probably won't be much better. Staying in the organization and waiting for Homer is probably the best bet.

That leaves one more spot in the pen to be filled, and it needs to be filled with somebody who can close. Would anyone feel comfortable with Coffey or Stanton there this year? The FA options out there right now aren't exciting, but Eric Gagne, Mr. David Weathers, Danys Baez, and Joe Borowski are probably the best options there. There are problems with each of those options. Gagne can't stay healthy and is still gonna get quite a bit of money. Weathers has been decent for us but we might be better off letting him go and taking the 1st rounder he'll net us. Last I heard, Baez wanted a contract better than the 4 years, $18 mil that Justin Speier got. Borowski might be the best option, as he has been a solid closer in the past and probably won't break the bank, though rumor has it the Red Sox may have interest. Other potential bullpen options include David Riske, Arthur Rhodes, Roberto Hernandez, Ron Villone, and Miguel Batista. I actually would like going after Batista, as he has closing experience in Toronto and pounds the ball into the ground. And he's just a cool dude, since he wants to write mystery novels and knows how to throw 15 separate pitches with a degree of competency (though rarely a degree of control). He's also been a starter, but I think he'd be willing to do either. I'm gonna randomly pencil him in as our closer for next year just for the hell of it.

At that, our opening day roster in 2007 could look like this:

C Ross
C Valentin
1B Hatteberg
1B/RF/LF Wilson
2B Phillips
2B/3B/SS Harris
SS Gonzalez
SS/3B Castro
3B Encarnacion
LF Dunn
CF Griffey
RF/CF/LF Denorfia
RF/CF/LF/2B/3B Freel

SP Harang
SP Arroyo
SP Lohse
SP Milton
SP Claussen
SP/RP Belisle
RP Majewski
RP Bray
RP Cormier
RP Coffey
RP Stanton
CL Batista

Now, my rough estimate for the Reds salary right now, excluding my wishfully thinking Batista and Wilson signings and estimating arb numbers, is just a touch under $59 mil. Assuming Bobby wasn't blowing smoke when he said the payroll would be raised, I think we're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-15 mil to work with still, which is enough to sign Wilson and Batista with plenty of room to spare.

Now, how plausible do you think that roster actually is, and how successful do you think it would be able to be? Do you believe we will stand pat in RF as I do, or do you think we could pursue a mid-level bat like David Dellucci, Jose Guillen, or Aubrey Huff? Would you be pleased with the offseason if this was the roster? Which FAs would you like to see pursued? I demand your feedback.

P.S. - RHM, I want your bod.

If Gary Matthews Jr, age 32, a career .263 hitter with little power or speed and a strikeout to walk ratio of approx. 2 to 1 is worth a whopping 5 year contract for 50 million, Adam Dunn is certainly a bargain for the Reds despite his glaring shortcomings.

Coming off a diappointing .239 season with 194 strikeouts and a slew of fielding miscues, it is safe to say that Adam Dunn's stock has never been lower. And yet he is a lock to hit 40+ home runs again. Is there really anywhere but up as far as his batting average is concerned? You have to give the new batting coach, Brook jacoby, an opportunity to give Dunner some new tips, advice, perspective, philosophy -- whatever it is those guys do to earn their salary.

I believe Krivsky has every intention of waiting on Dunn, although I wouldn't be shocked if he puts out feelers just to see what the market might be offering for the Big Donkey. Unless an offer is simply to good to resist, I expect him to hold pat. Let us not forgot that Dunn was his signing, one of his very first acts as GM. It's fine and good, to dump your predecessors long term contracts (LaRue) but when you start second-guessing yourself that is another matter, and I don't expect Krivsky to hit the panic button just yet.

Dunn's power is legendary. He will be just 27 years old in 2007 and already has 198 career home runs. If he hits 40 home runs for 10 more seasons, he is right around 600 and would still just be 37 years old. A couple of big years in there and assuming he can play into his 40s and your looking at a top 5 all-time home run hitter. Of course he would probably have the most strikeouots in history as well. The point is he very well might crack his way into the hall-of-fame by sheer foce of brute power. He certainly has a much much greater chance than Gary Matthews, Jr. and they are making the same salary right now.

What I would strongly recommend to all parties involved, is that Dunn be given agility and dexterity exercises from here on out. Nothing wrong with his hand-eye coordination, I am referring to his movement. He needs to look and act lighter on his feet. There must be training drills for this sort of thing, and now would be the time to explore those options. Have him tip toe around pylons and run through those tires and all of that.

I can't tell you how many times I saw Dunn pursue a ball in the outfield to only come up just inches short of reaching it. Incredibly frustrating to witness, and the resulting hits were backbreakers that went for doubles and triples. If runners were on base they scored easily. We know Dunn can't go airborne but if he can get better jumps and get his weight moving at the correct angle from the very beginning of the play, maybe some of those extrabase hits become huge rally-snuffing outs. Part of it must be confidence (lack of) because let's face it after grossly misplaying 3 or 4 balls on opening day he probably became much more tentative in his pursuit. Maybe I am wrong about that, I don't know firsthand what the guy is thinking, but like his batting average, his fielding and range can only get better, not worse, because right now its at rock-bottom. There's only one way left to go and that is up.

Right now Dunn is pretty much the key to this team. He bats in the heart of the order and he is in his prime and next to Griffey he absorbs the most salary. As Griffey's star fades, Dunn must be the one to pick up the power slack. He is at an absolute critical juncture as far as his tenure with the Reds is concerned. A big year showing improvement in his weak areas and perhaps he stays for the longhaul. One more season like the last one and he might be traded for middle relievers and prospects in a tragic salary dump. It can go either way, and that will be the major storyline for this season.