Blog Archives

July 14, 2012

Soft J is no longer a Cincinnati Red

Paul Janish stretching before the game

He got a chance to be the Cincinnati Reds’ full-time shortstop in 2011, but he’s spent all of 2012 in AAA. And today the Cincinnati Reds traded Paul Janish to the Atlanta Braves for some starting rotation depth.

In parts of four seasons with the Reds, from 2008-2011, Janish hit .221 with 7 homers and 70 RBIs. His fielding percentage at shortstop in 2009 was .991; in 2010, it was .981; and in 2011, it was .974. He also pitched in two games in 2009, allowing 11 earned runs in two innings, walking two and striking out three.

Janish was a fifth-round pick of the Reds in June of 2004. He’s 29 years old. He was hitting .237 this season for the Bats at the time of the trade.

How could we ever forget Janish’s pitching performance in 2009? Over the course of 2 innings, he allowed 11 runs, all earned. He struck out 3 and finished the year with a 49.50 ERA. There’s just something so awesome about position players pitching, and I greatly enjoyed Janish bullpen-saving effort.

Janish had a solid year in 2009 and finally got his chance to be a starter in 2010, but was unable to grab hold of that opportunity. I always liked the guy, and enjoyed watching his defensive prowess. My son has an autographed ball of his from the final year of Spring Training in Sarasota, Florida. Hopefully, Janish will get a chance to succeed in Atlanta.

For him, the Reds received Todd Redmond, a 27 year-old right-handed pitcher. He’s never appeared in the majors, but this year in AAA, he’s 6-6 with a 3.58 ERA in 18 starts. And he strikes out about one batter an inning, with 96 strikeouts in 105 2/3.

The Reds have used just 5 starters to this point in the 2012 season, but the odds are that is unlikely to continue. At this point, I’d be hard pressed to say who they could call up to cover for a starter out for a few starts. This trade will help that. And with shortstops Didi Gregorious and Billy Hamilton getting closer to the majors and Zack Cozart doing very well in the majors, dealing Janish was dealing from a position of strength. Overall, it seems like a trade that could benefit both teams.

July 13, 2012

Reds begin second half in a good position, but with room for improvement

Stubbsey is swinging

After what’s felt like an eternity thanks to that 11-game West Coast trip and the All Star break, the Cincinnati Reds finally return to the land of the correct time zone to start the second half of the 2012 baseball season. On the trip, the pitching was great, but as has been the case for much of both this year and last year, the offense has been inconsistent.

Still, the Reds find themselves 9 games over .500 at 47-38 and in second place, one game behind the first-place Pittsburgh Pirates. They’re ahead of the third-place team, the St. Louis Cardinals, by 1.5 games, and that’s who they’ll play tonight in a battle for second place.

The second-half starts with a little over two weeks until the trading deadline. With the team having no production from the lead-off position and center field thanks to Drew Stubbs blossoming into a horrible, un-coachable baseball player, general manager Walt Jocketty has some work to do.

Cincinnati Enquirer reporter John Fay discussed some possible trade targets yesterday. And he, like many, thinks someone to bat first in the lineup is the biggest weakness.

The question is who’s available. Philadelphia’s Juan Pierre apparently is. He’s having a decent year. He’s a rental player, which works well for the Reds since Billy Hamilton will likely be ready by 2014.

Minnesota’s Denard Span likely is available too. He’s hitting .270 with a .334 on-base this year. His career numbers are .282/.357. He under contract the next two years at $4.75 million and $6.5 million with a club option for 2015.

Ryan Ludwick (or Logan Ondrusek) is an outfielder (or reliever) for the Cincinnati Reds.

I want to go on the record again as saying no to Juan Pierre. He would be Willy Taveras, all over again. This Span guy could be promising, though.

Fay calls out Stubbs, as well, saying that most had assumed that a new guy would play left field. But the combination of Chris Heisey and Ryan Ludwick in left has started to come around. Ludwick, in particular, had a good June (.253/.326/.582) and, so far, a great July (.368/.368/.526). Combined, they’ve got 15 home runs and 53 RBI, which projects to a solid left-fielder over the course of the season. That’s nowhere near the black hole of suckage that Stubbs has been dropping on the field this year.

Center field and lead-off are where the Reds should target. If Jocketty can make an actual improvement there and make Todd Frazier the everyday third-baseman–sadly, Scott Rolen is done and needs to either retire or accept backup, bench duties–then the Reds’ offense would be markedly improved.

Then the team can focus on improving the next weakest link: Dusty Baker.

July 7, 2012

Can the Reds avoid another Willy Taveras situation?

The news from the Twitters yesterday centered around a message from ESPN’s Buster Olney saying that the Cincinnati Reds were looking at Philadelphia Phillies’ outfielder Juan Pierre.

As the Phillies prepare for possible sell-off, Juan Pierre drawing interest, including from the Cincinnati Reds.

Pierre is a 35-year-old left-fielder who many may recognize as the super-fast guy who used to lead-off and patrol center field for the Florida Marlins a decade ago. He was a guy who relied on his speed to be successful, and as he’s aged, his productivity has declined with his speed.

I’m happy to hear that the Reds are exploring the market. So often it seems like General Manager is asleep at the wheel even when it’s clear the team has gaping holes. The biggest problems with the 2012 club are ones that were identified and left un-addressed in the off-season: lead-off, left field, and the bench.

Presumably, Pierre would serve to improve the lead-off and left-field problem. However, after checking out Pierre’s stats and reading Redleg Nation’s review of Pierre, I think the better move would be doing nothing at all.

Pierre is a singles hitter who doesn’t walk much. His on-base percentage is almost directly tied to his batting average.

Pierre’s plate discipline is showing tell-tale signs of decline. His O-Swing rate (percentage of times the batter swings at a pitch outside the strike zone) has shot up from 27.6% last year to 33.9% this year. Over 30% O-Swing you’re usually looking at power hitters, like Phillips, Frazier, Ludwick etc. (JoeyMVP has a team-low 22% O-Swing). But with Pierre, you get zero power from his lack of discipline.

Keep in mind the importance of walking to OBP. Players go through slumps in batting average all the time. If their walk-rate is an important part of their OBP, then their offensive contribution doesn’t suffer as much. But if their OBP is made up to a large degree by their AVG, as it is with players like Pierre (and Heisey, and Phillips and Cozart and …) then the offense suffers from inconsistency. Really, the very last thing the erratic Reds offense needs right now is another hitter who doesn’t walk.

That last sentence is what really makes me the most scared about the Reds having Pierre. He’s hitting better than he has in a while right now, which means he’s likely to enter into a slump at some point. Without the ability to walk and get on base during a slump, he’ll just be another automatic out in the Reds’ lineup. In short, he’d be another Willy Taveras and no better than Drew Stubbs.

There are better upgrade options out there, depending on how much the club is willing to give up. If it were me, I’d certainly be exploring those, but Pierre would be one of the last guys I considered.

I think the best plan now is to shuffle the lineup. Move Brandon Phillips back to the lead-off position. Have Ryan Hanigan bat second. Move Todd Frazier to clean-up, and drop Stubbs and Zach Cozart down a few spots. As far as long-term plans for lead-off and center field, right now it feels like Billy Hamilton–he of the .413 on-base percentage and 104 steals in high A-ball–is likely the guy. Unfortunately, he’s unlikely to be ready until next year, at the earliest.

Until then, the best move might be no move at all. Which I would take over another Willy Taveras.

June 23, 2012

The return of Bill Bray

As RHM said yesterday in her injury report, left-handed reliever Bill Bray was “due to come back any time now.” And that time was just before last night’s game.

Bray was activated from the disabled list and reinstated to the active roster. To make room for him, J. J. Hoover was optioned down to the AAA Louisville Bats.

Hoover had been doing very well for the Reds, so hopefully losing him won’t damage the team. Hoover had a 3.00 ERA over 17 games with Cincinnati.

“It was a very tough decision,” Baker said. “J.J. did a great job for us. He got ready a lot quicker than we anticipated. We thought he’d be ready in the middle of the season. He performed well. It wasn’t anything he did. It was a matter of numbers.

“We told him he’ll be back. Hopefully, he’ll be back to stay a long time. He certainly has the stuff and he was intestinal fortitude for the job. He works hard. You don’t know when he’s around half the time. That’s what you want out of rookies. That’s old school — seen and not heard. He’s the epitome of that.”

Ah, the obligatory “tough decision” comment. Has a manager ever said it was an easy decision to get rid of a player? Regardless, this should make Baker feel more comfortable. He’s been longing to have another lefty in the bullpen.

June 15, 2012

Walt Jocketty awoke from his long slumber and disabled Drew Stubbs

After almost two weeks of not playing because of a strained oblique and flu-like symptoms, Cincinnati Reds outfielder Drew Stubbs was finally placed on the disabled list.

I can only imagine that this happened after Walt Jocketty woke up from a week-long nap and wondered why Stubbs wasn’t playing. I mean, the only other explanation would involve assuming that the Reds management staff doesn’t fully understand how the disabled list works.

Whatever the reason, Stubbs was finally put on the disabled list, giving him some time to rest and recover. In his place, the Reds recalled Willie Harris.

Despite Harris’ awfulness earlier in the year, the move does make sense. In addition to Stubbs hurting, Chris Heisey strained his groin, making him unavailable for at least a couple games. The outfield depth is thin, and Harris might be able to help there. I’d love for him to improve on that .086 batting average.