April 26, 2013

In brief: Are the Reds worse than the Nats?

Look, man, I just don't think you have it today. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Look, man, it’s not them; it’s you. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Last game
The Reds began a visit with the Washington Nationals on the wrong foot yesterday, losing 1-8. They left Bronson Arroyo out there for 6.0 innings, even though the 6 runs (5 earned) he allowed came in the second and third innings. I guess they figured there was plenty of time to make it up?

But that would require the offense to be present, and the Reds offense has been away on holiday lately. The Reds’ only run came from a solo shot by Joey Votto in the fourth inning. Hell, that was the Reds’ only HIT.

Also, the Reds had two errors. Blerg.

Next game
Tonight Homer Bailey (RHP, 1-1, 3.24 ERA) tries to make up for the disastrophe that was last night’s game when he faces off against Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, 3-1, 2.67 ERA). Bailey is coming off a no-decision against the Marlins last Sunday, while Zimmermann’s coming off a loss to the Mets.

A bad day? Or something more?
I didn’t have the stomach to watch most of last night’s game for myself. It’s just too eerie to hear cheers going up for those guys in the doppelganger uniforms at exactly the opposite times as when I would cheer. It’s like slipping into a parallel dimension or something.

But I did see some, and I wondered whether this was really just a combination of Badroyo making an appearance, the offense playing hide-and-seek, and the defense having a bad day. Could it really be a perfect storm, or are the Nationals just a superior team? After all, they do have a barely-legal who’s hitting better than Votto (OBP’s not even close, but we all know Votto’s not paid to get on base) and they were picked by ESPN to win the World Series this year.

On the other hand, the Nats were under .500 coming in to this series (10-11), and the Reds can take credit for pinning 2 of those losses on the Nationals in the first week of the season. And though the season record between these two teams is now even, the Reds still outscored them 28-18 in the four games they’ve played so far. Also, it’s April.

What to say to sound smart at the water cooler
Of the last 12 times the Reds have played the Nationals, 5 of the games went into extras.

April 26, 2013

Bad-rroyo debuts in Reds 8-1 loss against the Nationals

Team123456789RHE
Reds (13-10)000100000112
Nationals (11-11)02400002-8120
W: Gonzalez (2-1) L: Arroyo (2-2)

Boxscore

Bronson Arroyo waits for a new ball after Bryce Harper lost one in the seats.

Bronson Arroyo waits for a new ball after Bryce Harper lost one in the seats.

It took until the fifth start of the 2013 season, but Bronson Arroyo’s evil, incompetent twin Badrroyo finally made his first appearance. Arroyo pitched six innings, allowing nine hits, six runs–five earned, while striking out two. It was a bad performance that the Reds’ offense had no hope of overcoming.

The Reds scored just one run, and that was thanks to a solo home run by Joey Votto in the fourth inning off Washington Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez was on top of his game, though, as that was the only hit he allowed over his eight innings of work. I wonder if Votto will be criticized for hitting a “wasted” home run. It’s probably not something he’s paid to do.

Arroyo was bad and the offense was bad, what else? The bullpen didn’t help matters much. JJ Hoover contributed a scoreless inning, which is nice to see. He’s been a lot more effective now that he’s not being called on to pitch every game. But Logan Ondrusek had a bad outing in the eight, allowing the Nationals to score two more runs. Other than that, he’s been much improved since returning to the majors this year.

Today the Reds will go again for their second road victory of the season. That’s right. They’ve won just one road game so far, having an away record of 1-6. They’ll hope for better luck tonight when Homer Bailey goes against Jordan Zimmerman at 7:05pm.

April 25, 2013

In brief: Reds take 8 of 10-game homestand

Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker, right, congratulates third baseman Todd Frazier (21) after they defeated the Chicago Cubs 1-0 in a baseball game on Wednesday, April 24, 2013, in Cincinnati. Frazier accounted for the game's only run with a home run. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Frazier’s home run wasn’t just a total bomb at 480 feet, it was also the only run scored by either team. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Last game
The Reds won the day game to take the series from the Cubs. Mat Latos was great. Todd Frazier hit a 480-foot homer. The baseball gods were just generally smiling. Read the whole game wrap, complete with pictures of a sad Cub!

Next game
Tonight the Reds head to Washington DC to visit the Nationals. Bronson Arroyo (RHP, 2-1, 3.54 ERA) will be going up against Gio Gonzalez (LHP, 1-1, 5.85 ERA) at 7:05 p.m. Gonzalez was the victim of a big inning against the Mets in his last outing, so this could be a good chance for the Reds to find their bats again.

20,000 days since Frank Robinson’s big clutch day
Theoretically, at any given point in a game, a team has a certain chance of winning. And each action that a player takes can increase or decrease that percentage chance. When a player does something to increase the team’s chance of winning, he increases his Win Probability Added (WPA) stat.

20,000 days ago, Frank Robinson played the game in which he racked up the highest WPA of his career. It involved extra innings and come-from-behind walk-off awesomness. Check out a detailed retelling of the tale on The Hardball Times.

What to say to sound smart at the water cooler
Yesterday’s win marked only the sixth time in Reds’ history that the team won at least 8 games in a 10-game-or-fewer homestand. They also did it in 1912, 1924, 1966, 1975, and last year.

April 25, 2013

Game 22: Cubs 0, Reds 1

Team123456789RHE
Cubs000000000050
Reds00000100-180
W: Latos (1-0) L: Samardzija (1-4) S: Chapman (4)

Boxscore

The Reds took the game and the series from the Cubs yesterday, but just barely.

Mat Latos was great and finally got a win for his efforts. He put in 7.0+ innings and allowed 0 runs on 4 hits and a walk. One of those hits and the walk were to the first two guys he faced in the eighth, though, so it was a good time to bring in Jonathan Broxton for three quick outs. Aroldis Chapman took over for the ninth and allowed a hit before closing it out for the save.

The pitchers were backed up with some good defense, of course. Those among us who weren’t so sure about Shin-Soo Choo in center field were all ready feel vindicated when the Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo did this:

(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)


And sent one to deep center field, only to see this:
Shin-Soo Choo makes a great catch

(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)


Which left Rizzo feeling like this:
Anthony Rizzo is disappointed about being out.

(Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

Rizzo looks like of like Ryan Reynolds when he’s disappointed. In fact, he lined out to Choo 3 times yesterday.

On the other side of the innings, the Reds’ only run came from a 2-out solo shot by Todd Frazier in the sixth inning. Choo went 2-for-4 to drag down his OBP a little. Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco, and Latos also contributed hits that didn’t end up coming to anything. Votto was caught stealing for the first time this season in the first inning. Joey Votto is not paid to get caught stealing.

The win brings the Reds’ record to 13-9. With the same number of wins as the Cardinals and one more loss, the Reds are currently .5 game out of first place. They go to visit the Nationals tonight at 7:05 p.m. Bronson Arroyo (RHP, 2-1, 3.54 ERA) takes on Gio Gonzalez (LHP, 1-1, 5.85 ERA)

April 23, 2013

Injuries, the Reds, and the unluckiest team in the NL Central

Ryan Ludwick attempting to drive in a run.

Ryan Ludwick attempting to drive in a run in his healthier days.

With the minor injuries to Zack Cozart and Jonathan Broxton recently, I started thinking about how injury prone the Cincinnati Reds have seemed so far during the 2013 season. So I loaded up a list of all the injured players across Major League Baseball to compare the Reds to their National League Central opponents.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the unluckiest, with seven players on the disabled list. The Chicago Cubs are next with six, the Reds have five, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have four. That leaves the St. Louis Cardinals as the healthiest team, with just three players on the DL.

The Brewers have been hit the hardest by far, with two players out for the season. Aramis Ramirez, Mark Rogers, and Jeff Bianchi are on pace to be back in the next few weeks, but Corey Hart and Chris Narveson aren’t expected back until May.

None of the Cubs players are listed as being out for the entire season, but they are the Cubs. Historically, no one is as unlucky as them.

That brings us to the Reds. Like the Cubs, no one is out for the year, although at this point it’s easy to wonder if Johnny Cueto being introduced on the main stageNick Masset will ever pitch again. He hasn’t pitched since 2011. Ryan Ludwick is the most severely injured and isn’t expected back until the All Star Break. The rest–Sean Marshall, Johnny Cueto, and Ryan Hanigan–are all expected back in May.

The Pirates have been healthy during the season. All of their four players started the season on the DL.

The Cardinals are similar to the Pirates. Two of their three players were placed on the DL during spring training. Those two–Chris Carpenter and Rafeal Furcal–were big potential parts of the team and will be missing the entire season. Jason Motte is the only one to be injured during the season.

Overall, the Reds seem to be in the middle of the pack. Sure, all but one of their disabled players have occurred in the first month of the season. But with the exception of Ryan Ludwick, those injuries appear to be minor and the players are expected back in May. Assuming the rash of injuries stops, then the earliness of the season almost insures that these injuries won’t have a major impact on the team’s overall performance.

Milwaukee Brewers (7)

Updated Player Pos Injury Expected Return
04/20/13 Mark Rogers SP Shoulder 15-day DL. Expected to make Double-A rehab start April 23
04/19/13 Taylor Green 1B Hip 15-day DL. Out for season
04/13/13 Jeff Bianchi SS Hip 15-day DL. On Double-A rehab assignment
04/09/13 Chris Narveson RP Finger 15-day DL. Out until at least early May
04/08/13 Corey Hart 1B Knee 60-day DL. Out until at least late May
04/06/13 Aramis Ramirez 3B Knee 15-day DL. Out until at least mid-April
03/20/13 Mat Gamel 1B Knee 60-day DL. Out for season

Chicago Cubs (6)

Updated Player Pos Injury Expected Return
04/22/13 Matt Garza SP Elbow, lat 15-day DL. Expected to make Double-A rehab start April 24
04/14/13 Steve Clevenger C Oblique 60-day DL. Out until at least mid-June
04/13/13 Kyuji Fujikawa RP Forearm 15-day DL. Out until at least late April
03/31/13 Scott Baker SP Elbow 60-day DL. Out until at least late May
03/27/13 Arodys Vizcaino RP Elbow 60-day DL. Out until at least early August
04/14/13 Ian Stewart 3B Quadriceps 15-day DL. On Triple-A rehab assignment

Cincinnati Reds (5)

Updated Player Pos Injury Expected Return
04/22/13 Sean Marshall RP Shoulder 15-day DL. On Triple-A rehab assignment
04/21/13 Ryan Hanigan C Thumb 15-day DL. Out until at least early May
04/21/13 Nick Masset RP Shoulder 60-day DL. Out until at least late May
04/15/13 Johnny Cueto SP Triceps 15-day DL. Out until at least late April
04/15/13 Ryan Ludwick LF Shoulder 60-day DL. Out until at least early July

Pittsburgh Pirates (4)

Updated Player Pos Injury Expected Return
04/22/13 Charlie Morton SP Elbow 15-day DL. Expected to make Double-A rehab start April 23
04/20/13 Francisco Liriano SP Arm 15-day DL. On Double-A rehab assignment
04/10/13 Jeff Karstens SP Shoulder 15-day DL. Out until at least mid-April
03/20/13 Chase d’Arnaud SS Thumb 60-day DL. Out until at least early June

St. Louis Cardinals (3)

Updated Player Pos Injury Expected Return
04/12/13 Jason Motte RP Elbow 15-day DL. Out until at least early May
03/30/13 Chris Carpenter SP Neck, arm 60-day DL. Out for season
03/23/13 Rafael Furcal SS Elbow 15-day DL. Out until at least early September